Cuba at a crossroads: does Fidel Castro's decision to step down after half a century in power open the door to real change for Cuba?

• Author: McKinley, Jr., James
• Position: INTERNATIONAL

When Fidel Castro seized power in Cuba in 1959, Dwight D. Eisenhower was President, John McCain had recently graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy, Hillary Clinton was an 11-year-old Girl Scout, and Barack Obama hadn't been born yet.

So when Castro stepped down on February 19--after outlasting nine U.S. Presidents--it dearly marked a turning point for Cuba. The question is: What, if anything, will change?

Poor health is what finally prompted Castro, 81, to step aside. Five days later, Raul Castro, 76, formally assumed the presidency from his brother.

Raul had been acting President since July 2006, when Fidel underwent emergency surgery and temporarily ceded power to his younger brother. But Fidel remained active in running the government from behind the scenes.

In a speech to the National Assembly following his selection, Raul made it clear that he would make no radical changes and promised to consult his brother on every important decision. He said Fidel "is irreplaceable, and the people will continue his work even though he is not physically here."

But Cuba's new President also says that the government needs to change to survive in the new era. He has talked about possibly working to improve relations with the U.S. And days after Raul officially took over, Cuba signed two important international human-rights treaties that Fidel had long opposed--the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights. (Whether they'll be observed is anyone's guess.)

After decades of political repression and a moribund economy that has left most Cubans in poverty, many are skeptical of their new leader's ability to bring about real change. They are waiting for Raul to do something concrete to improve their lives, like raising salaries. "I am not expecting a father, omnipresent and omnipotent, but a President, [about] whom I can complain, freely, in public," wrote Yoani Sanchez, a political blogger in Cuba.

THE REVOLUTION

Cuba and its 11 million people have been under Fidel Castro's control since Jan. 1, 1959, when he and a band of guerrillas overthrew the U.S.-backed dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista. At the time, Castro promised to restore the Cuban Constitution and hold elections. Instead, at the height of the Cold War rivalry between the U.S. and the Communist powers, he aligned Cuba with the Soviet Union, embracing its repressive political policies, state-run economic model, and hostility...