Criminogenic Risk Assessment Beyond Juvenile Justice: Exploring the Predictive Ability of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) in Norway

• Published date: 01 July 2024
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/00938548241237181
• Author: Harald Kanestrøm,Marianne Stallvik,Stian Lydersen,Norbert Skokauskas,Siri Hoftun,Camilla Karlsen Nilsen,Jannike Kaasbøll
• Date: 01 July 2024
• Subject Matter: Articles

CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR, 2024, Vol. 51, No. 7, July 2024, 975 –993.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00938548241237181

Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journals-permissions

© 2024 International Association for Correctional and Forensic Psychology

975

CRIMINOGENIC RISK ASSESSMENT BEYOND

JUVENILE JUSTICE

Exploring the Predictive Ability of the Youth Level of

Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) in

Norway

HARALD KANESTRØM

Norwegian University of Science and Technology

The Office for Children, Youth and Family Affairs (Bufetat)

MARIANNE STALLVIK

Norwegian University of Science and Technology

The Office for Children, Youth and Family Affairs (Bufetat)

STIAN LYDERSEN

NORBERT SKOKAUSKAS

Norwegian University of Science and Technology

SIRI HOFTUN

CAMILLA KARLSEN NILSEN

The Office for Children, Youth and Family Affairs (Bufetat)

JANNIKE KAASBØLL

Norwegian University of Science and Technology

This study evaluated the predictive properties of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) in 646

Norwegian adolescents (63% males) placed in non-secure, community-based residential care. Using receiver operating char-

acteristics and logistic regression, the study explored the YLS/CMI’s efficacy in predicting various recidivism outcomes

across subgroups. The inventory demonstrated to be a significant predictor for all categories of offending behavior (area

under the curve ranged from .62 to .77). Although the YLS/CMI total risk score showed a robust association with offending

across subgroups, there were discernible variations in predictive ability between males and females. This pattern extended to

analyses of subdomains and have implications for clinical use. Overall, the findings support the YLS/CMI as a useful tool

for predicting delinquency in a Norwegian residential setting and contribute to the expanding body of literature supporting

the instrument’s utility across various cultures and contexts.

AUTHORS’ NOTE: The project was funded by The Office for Children, Youth and Family Affairs (Bufetat)

with financial support from The Research Council of Norway through the Public sector Ph.D. scheme.

Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Harald Kanestrøm, Regional Centre for Child

and Youth Mental Health and Child Welfare, Department of Mental Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health

Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Postbox 8905 MTFS, 7491 Trondheim, Norway.

e-mail: harald.kanestrom@bufetat.no.

1237181CJBXXX10.1177/00938548241237181Criminal Justice and BehaviorKanestrøm et al. / The Predictive Ability of the YLS/CMI in Norway

research-article2024

976 CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR

Keywords: criminogenic needs; risk assessment; Risk–Need–Responsivity; criminal behavior; juvenile delinquency;

offenders

INTRODUCTION

Predicting and preventing criminal conduct among adolescents is vital to reduce the

detrimental consequences this behavior has for themselves, their families, and society at

large. Moreover, persistent antisocial behavior during adolescence is closely linked to var-

ious mental, physical, and social problems in adulthood (Bevilacqua et al., 2018; Moffitt,

2018) and high societal costs (Rivenbark et al., 2018). Therefore, it is paramount to iden-

tify which individuals are at risk for continued delinquent behavior and provide them with

effective interventions. In this pursuit, actuarial risk instruments have been developed

within the realm of offender rehabilitation. These tools serve to classify the likelihood of

criminal recidivism and subsequent treatment needs (Bonta & Andrews, 2017). Reliable

risk instruments allow service providers to apply treatment principles that constitute effec-

tive practice using the Risk–Need–Responsivity (RNR) framework. In essence, the RNR

approach mandates a precise evaluation of risk for future criminal behavior to match the

intensity of intervention to individual’s risk level, addressing the specific factors (“crimi-

nogenic needs”) which is contributing to the maintenance or increase in risk level, and

tailoring interventions to individual characteristics to enhance response to treatment

(Wormith & Zidenberg, 2018).

Although the use of structural risk assessment is a well-established approach, these mea-

sures come with its impediments. Meta-analyses have revealed variations in the efficacy of

risk instruments in predicting recidivism across populations (Olver et al., 2009, 2014). As

indicated by these studies, characteristics like age, sex, ethnicity, and cultural context may

potentially affect the predictive accuracy of risk assessment tools. In addition, sample size

and composition (e.g. judicial situation of the sample), comorbidity of problems (e.g., sub-

stance abuse disorder), follow-up time, outcome measures, administration routines, and

assessors training could contribute to variability. Notably, concerns have been raised as

many instruments have been largely developed on males or mixed-sex samples resulting in

less accuracy in predicting offending in females (Shepherd et al., 2013). Similarly, there

have been concerns that tools are predominantly developed in North America and, thus,

show lower precision in other locations (Olver et al., 2009, 2014). Consequently, risk instru-

ments must be validated on the population for which they are to be used.

Among the array of juvenile risk assessment instruments, a prominent choice is the Youth

Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI). This is a Canadian tool specifi-

cally developed to assess risk of criminal recidivism and identify criminogenic needs and

provide guidance for case management throughout the intervention period (Hoge &

Andrews, 1994, 2011). The inventory has endured rigorous empirical scrutiny, yielding

evidence of its efficacy in predicting general and violent recidivism (Olver et al., 2009;

Pusch & Holtfreter, 2018). Several studies have cemented the YLS/CMI standing as a valid

predictor of future offending in various countries, such as Canada (Scott et al., 2019; Valerie

et al., 2016), Portugal (Basto-Pereira et al., 2021), Spain (Ortega-Campos et al., 2020),

Australia (McGrath et al., 2018; Thompson & McGrath, 2012), England (Rennie & Dolan,