Crime under lockdown: The impact of COVID‐19 on citizen security in the city of Buenos Aires

• Published date: 01 August 2021
• Author: Santiago M. Perez‐Vincent,Ernesto Schargrodsky,Mauricio García Mejía
• Date: 01 August 2021
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12555

Received:  April   Revised:  July  Accepted:  July 

DOI: ./- .

SPECIAL ISSUE ARTICLE

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CRIME AND JUSTICE

Crime under lockdown: The impact of COVID-19

on citizen security in the city of Buenos Aires

Santiago M. Perez-Vincent1Ernesto Schargrodsky2

Mauricio García Mejía1

Inter-American Development Bank,

Washington, District of Columbia, USA

Universidad TorcuatoDi Tella, CAF and

CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Correspondence

ErnestoSchargrodsky, Business School,

UniversidadTorcuato Di Tella,Buenos

Aires,Argentina.

Email:eschargr@utdt.edu

[Correctionadded on October , ,

afterf irst online publication: The copy-

rightline was changed.]

Research Summary: This paper studies the impact

of the COVID- pandemic and the subsequent lock-

down on criminal activity in the City of Buenos Aires,

Argentina. Following quarantine restrictions, we find a

large, significant, robust, and immediate decline in prop-

erty crime reported to official agencies, police arrests,

and crime reported in victimization surveys. Weobserve

no significant change in homicides, and a significant

increase in arrests for “resistance to authorities”. The

decrease in criminal activity was greater in business and

transportation areas, but still large in commercial and

residential areas (including informal settlements). After

the sharp and immediate fall, crime recovered but, by

the end of , it had not reached its initial levels. The

arrest data additionally shows a reduction in the dis-

tance from the detainee’s address to the crime location,

and a fall in the number of detainees from outside the

City of Buenos Aires. Crime became more local as mobil-

ity was restricted.

Policy Implications: We find no evidence that the

reduction in the number of detainees from outside the

City of Buenos Aires led to a displacement of crime

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits

use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or

adaptations are made.

©  The Authors. Criminology & Public Policypublished by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society of Criminology.

Criminology & Public Policy. ;:–. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/capp 463

464 PEREZ-VINCENT .

to suburban areas. This result aligns with the hypoth-

esis that focalized place-based interventions have the

potential to reduce overall crime rates. Moreover, the

increase in arrests for "resistance to authorities" at

the checkpoints set up during the lockdown shows that

the enforcement of mobility restrictions can cause fric-

tions between citizens and police, negatively affecting

police’s legitimacy. We also find that the increased gov-

ernment presence for the provision of health and social

services in informal settlements during the pandemic

led, as a positive externality, to an additional decrease

in crime.

KEYWORDS

citizen security,crime, Argentina, COVID-, lockdown, displace-

ment

1 INTRODUCTION

The COVID- pandemic shook humanity toits core in . In addition to its direct health effects,

the pandemic forced worldwide authorities to implement extraordinarypolicies to curb the spread

of the virus and prevent the healthcare system’s collapse. These policies included quarantines,

closure of nonessential services and businesses, interruption of face-to-face schooling, constraints

on the use of public transportation, restrictions on gathering size, and comprehensive control and

closure of international and domestic borders (Hale et al., ). Beyond these public policies,

individuals adopted self-protection measures, such as maintaining social distancing and adjusting

hygiene practices. The fear of contagion and the containment measures disrupted people’s lives,

changing almost all activity patterns and social dynamics.

Criminal activity was not an exception. The COVID- pandemic and the accompanying

changes in social dynamics affected victims, criminals, police agencies, and criminal justice sys-

tems in multiple ways. These impacts altered opportunities and incentives for criminal activity

through several simultaneous and heterogeneous channels.

First, the government-imposed quarantines and curfews, and the individuals’ self-protection

decisions had marked effects on movement patterns (see, e.g., Medimorec et al., ). People’s

schedules and family dynamics changed drastically: work was restricted—or completely sus-

pended for nonessential activities—schools were closed, public transportation was limited, and

several social activities were banned, all of which significantly reduced the exposure of potential

victims to out-of-home crime. Second, the pandemic and the lockdowns simultaneously affected

supply and demand in most economic activities, leading to an unprecedented economic contrac-

tion (World Bank, ). The recession triggered unemployment and poverty, while the hetero-

geneity of the shocks increased inequality,likely affecting the economic incentives to get involved

in criminal activities (Fajnzylber et al., ; Raphael & Winter-Ebmer, ; Schargrodsky &

Freira, ). Third, the police changed their deployment on the streets and shifted their focus