Crime, quarantine, and the U.S. coronavirus pandemic

• Published date: 01 August 2021
• Author: Ernesto Lopez,Richard Rosenfeld
• Date: 01 August 2021
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12557

Received:  April   Revised:  August  Accepted:  August 

DOI: ./- .

SPECIAL ISSUE ARTICLE

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CRIME AND JUSTICE

Crime, quarantine, and the U.S. coronavirus

pandemic

Ernesto Lopez1,2Richard Rosenfeld1

Department of Criminology and

Criminal Justice, University of Missouri -

St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Council on Criminal Justice,

Washington, D.C.

Correspondence

ErnestoLopez, Department of Criminol-

ogyand Criminal Justice, University of

Missouri-St. Louis,  University Blvd 

LucasHall, St. Louis, MO , USA.

Email:elhrk@mail.umsl.edu.

Abstract

Research Summary: Priorresearch has produced var-

ied results regarding the impact of the coronavirus pan-

demic on crime rates, depending on the offenses and

time periods under investigation. The current study of

weekly offense rates in large U.S. cities is based on a

longer time period, a greater number of offenses than

prior research, and a varying number of cities for each

offense (max =, min =, md =). We find that

weekly property crime and drug offense rates, averaged

across the cities, fell during the pandemic. An excep-

tion is motor vehicle theft, which trended upward after

pandemic-related population restrictions were insti-

tuted in March . Robbery rates also declined imme-

diately after the pandemic began. Averageweekly homi-

cide, aggravated assault, and gun assault rates did not

exhibit statistically significant increases after March.

Beginning in June , however, significant increases

in these offenses were detected, followed by declines in

the late summer and fall. Fixed-effects regression anal-

yses disclose significant decreases in aggravated assault,

robbery, and larceny rates associated with reduced resi-

dential mobility during the pandemic. These results sup-

port the routine activity hypothesis that the dispersion

of activity away from households increases crime rates.

The results for the other offenses are less supportive.

Policy Implications: Quarantines and lockdowns,

although necessary to reduce contagious illness, are

not desirable crime-control devices. An object lesson of

Criminology & Public Policy. ;:–. ©  American Society of Criminology 401wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/capp

402 LOPEZ  ROSENFELD

the coronavirus pandemic is to redouble effective crime

reduction strategies and improve police–community

relations without confining people to their homes.

KEYWORDS

crime trends, policy, property crime, violent crime

The global coronavirus pandemic has fueled speculation and research about its impact on crime

rates. Some commentators worry that the stress and strain of the pandemic and related popula-

tion restrictions on individuals and families increased crime, especially domestic violence (Davies

et al., ). Others point to reporteddrops in crime, especially property offending, as evidence that

the lockdowns and stay-at-home orders havereduced opportunities for criminal activity (MacFar-

quhar & Kovaleski, ). The small but growing research literatureon crime changes during the

pandemic reports both increases and decreases, depending on the offense types, the places, and

the time periods under investigation. There is a pressing need for comprehensiveempirical exam-

inations of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on multiple violent and property offenses,

across multiple locales, and beyond the first few weeks or months of the pandemic, to which

most prior studies are limited. The current study addresses that need.

Our analysis proceeds in two stages—one largely descriptive and the other explanatory.We first

summarize average changes during the pandemic in the rates of  different criminal offenses for

a sample of large U.S. cities. Weuse time-series methods to investigate whether the level and trend

of the  offenses changed significantly after pandemic-related restrictions were instituted across

the United States in March . The results are summarized in the text and presented in detail

in the Supporting Information S.

The second stage of the analysis is informed by the key insight of the routine activity perspec-

tive in criminology that crime rates are related to population dynamics. Specifically, we evaluate

the hypothesis that “the dispersion of activities away from households and families increases the

opportunity for crime and thus generates higher crime rates” (Cohen & Felson, ,p. ). Pop-

ulation mobility data are used to measure change in the amount of time persons spent at home

during the pandemic. We estimate panel regression models of average weekly city crime rates

during  that include this measure of residential duration along with controls for seasonal

effects and unmeasured attributes of the sample cities. Consistent with the hypothesis and other

research, we find that, net of other influences, the rates of several, but not all, of the  offenses

declined as people spent more time at home during the pandemic.

1BACKGROUND

The surge in the coronavirus pandemic in the spring of  quickly caught the attention of

researchers interested in the pandemic’s effect on crime. The global pandemic has been called

“the largest criminological experiment in history” (Stickle & Felson, , p. ). The emerg-

ing research literature includes studies of single and multiple offenses carried out in multiple

cities during varying time periods. None of the studies under review examined crime data beyond

September , and several are based on just a few weeks of data. All of the studies compare

crime rates in  with prior years. Many studies focus solely on domestic violence (see Piquero