Covid, pandemics, plague and public affairs: Lessons from history

• Published date: 01 November 2020
• Author: Phil Harris,Danny Moss
• Date: 01 November 2020
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2548

EDITORIAL

Covid, pandemics, plague and public affairs: Lessons

from history

The worldwide Coronavirus pandemic of 2020 has presented an

unprecedented set of health and increasing economic challenges for

countries around the world. As infection rates have soared to over

46 million world-wide with deaths related to coronavirus reaching

almost 2 million at the time of writing. Governments around the world

have sought to find ways to suppress the spread of the virus by driv-

ing down the so-called “R”rate of virus transmission through a series

of national and regional “lockdowns”designed to create a so-called

“firebreak ‘that would slow the transmission rate. Such measures are

designed to essentially’buy some time”for an effective vaccine to be

developed that can help immunise the population against the

coronavirus.

It is of course, a fundamental responsibility of government to

determine and oversee the implementation of policies designed to

protect the health, well-being and safety of their populations as well

as their economic prosperity. It is here that the impact of coronavirus

has created some genuine dilemmas for governments of all complex-

ions: attempting to balance health imperatives with genuine concern

about the short and long-term economic impact of lock down mea-

sures on the economic prosperity and even survival of many busi-

nesses and individuals. Moreover, as a second wave of infection

associated with the pandemic has continued to devastate countries

across Europe as well as around the world, governments are facing

the additional challenge of maintaining public order and compliance

with policies designed to address the impact of the pandemic.

Arguably it is here that a public affairs perspective offers a valu-

able “lens”through which to observe the ways which governments

have sought to respond to the impact of coronavirus, attempting to

balance the interests of all the various stakeholder groups, which at

times has involved adopting unpopular policies in the short term, par-

ticularly in terms of quite harsh and restrictive lockdown measures

imposed across Europe in response to the arrival of a second wave of

coronavirus. The outbreak of violent demonstrations in Spain and Italy

following the imposition of further restrictions on movement and

social activities as infection rates have soared, arguably could be

attributed to a failure of the respective governments' communication

strategies in winning over the hearts and minds of large sections of

their populations, who have turned to violent protest to express their

frustrations and dissatisfaction with the way which the governments

have sought to tackle the coronavirus threat.

Indeed, the coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the critical

importance of effective government communications around the

world, not least in interpreting and understanding and communicating

scientific information and government policy. What the pandemic has

done is to highlight the importance of critical issues around decision

making, regulation and the management of scientific and statistical

information and its gathering and interpretation. Political decision

making does not generally thrive in the face of uncertainty, especially

when confronted with the type of critical dilemmas of balancing

health and economic priorities as with the current pandemic. Viruses

can grow and change rapidly and be spread by differing groups at dif-

ferent rates depending upon age, culture, environment, fitness, gen-

der, transport networks and misinformation. We have seen all these

seven apocalypse riders of the pandemic be blamed for its spread and

of course it always impacts more severely on the poorest sections of

society. As in many areas of life, a historical perspective can provide

some valuable insights.

1|HISTORICAL LESSONS

We know historically that the Black Death in 14th Century Europe

resulted in almost half of the population dying and that its impact

resulted in a chronic shortage of labour and greater regulation of the

population to guarantee human resources for government. It led to

growing factional conflict for resources and gave birth to the mediae-

val technology revolution which stimulated the development of the

increased mechanisation of textile manufacture, fire arms ordinance

production, optics and the beginnings of the printing industry. The

Black Death pandemic, then like now with advances in digital commu-

nication, healthcare and retailing led to technological change and

development.

Perhaps the most portentous lessons can be drawn from the dev-

astating impact of the 20th Century “Spanish”Flu, which was named

such because Spain reported the virus openly and made basic data

available. Many other countries were still under state data control and

thus did not report it or were in paralysis as a result of the impact of

war and did not record and publish data or reportage on it. So the

control, manipulation and misinterpretation of virus data and fake

news associated with it have many historic parallels and precedents.

We have seen this same phenomena and process repeated and occur

globally in this pandemic, the exception being a few ultra-transparent

states such as New Zealand. Global institutions such as the United

Nations and World Health Organisation have been criticised by some

national leaderships to deflect blame from their own domestic short

comings and this has undermined international responses to the virus

DOI: 10.1002/pa.2548

J Public Affairs. 2020;20:e2548.wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/pa© 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd1of2

https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2548