COVID-19, Diffuse Anxiety, and Public (Mis)Trust in Government: Empirical Insights and Implications for Crime and Justice

• Published date: 01 June 2024
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/07340168231190673
• Author: Jonathan C. Reid,Samantha J. Brown,Jared Dmello
• Date: 01 June 2024

COVID-19, Diffuse Anxiety, and

Public (Mis)Trust in

Government: Empirical Insights

and Implications for Crime and

Justice

Jonathan C. Reid

1

, Samantha J. Brown

2

,

and Jared Dmello

1

Abstract

Given that trust ingovernment is a criticalfeature of a well-functioning democra cy, research into its

determinants has long been a priority among public opinion scholars. The consensus in the litera-

ture is that short-term factors drive the ebbs and f‌lows of public trust, and a climate of mistrust has

signif‌icant consequences on the government’s ability to deliver on policies and enforce the law.

Despite decades of extensive research on public trust, changing circumstances related to the

COVID-19 pandemic support the need to investigate the factors shaping trust in this distinct period.

This article, using data from the American National Election Study, explores how economic, social,

and political anxieties pervasive throughout the pandemic inf‌luence trust in the United States gov-

ernment. Findings from ordered logistic regression analyses indicate that public trust in government

is associated with views of the government’s COVID-19 response, beliefs about the state of the

country and government corruption, economic anxieties, and concerns about election fraud and

the status of American democracy. Findings also reveal that sentiments toward institutions—including

the police and the Center for Disease Control—contribute to variability in public trust. The implica-

tions of these f‌indings for criminal justice research and policy are also considered.

Keywords

public opinion, trust in government, COVID-19, criminal justice, political trust

Trust plays a very tangible role in the effectiveness of government. Few perceptions are more palpable

than that of trust or its absence. Governments ignore this at their peril. (OECD (2017))

1

Department of Criminal Justice and Criminology, Sam Houston State University, Huntsville, TX, USA

2

Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL, USA

Corresponding Author:

Jonathan C. Reid, Department of Criminal Justice and Criminology, Sam Houston State University, George J. Beto Criminal

Justice Center, Box 2296 Huntsville, TX 77341-2296, USA.

Email: jcr108@shsu.edu

Article

Criminal Justice Review

2024, Vol. 49(2) 117-134

© 2023 Georgia State University

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/07340168231190673

journals.sagepub.com/home/cjr

In times of national crisis, citizens turn to their government for leadership, guidance, and assis-

tance. How governments respond, or how citizens perceive this response, can shape public attitudes

toward political leaders and impact public trust in government (Chanley, 2002; Citrin & Stoker,

2018). For example, people dissatisf‌ied with government performance may express their dissatisfac-

tion in terms of cynicism toward the government (Citrin, 1974). An increase in cynicism, however, is

not without consequence, as public mistrust can undermine government systems and diminish vol-

untary compliance with the law (Marien & Hooghe, 2011; Miller, 1974a, 1974b). Outcomes of this

nature provide ample reason for scholars to investigate and comprehensively understand the factors

inf‌luencing public trust in the United States.

While prior research has linked various antecedents to Americans’trust in government (e.g.,

Avery, 2006; Chanley et al., 2000; Citrin, 1974; Citrin & Stoker, 2018; Filindra et al., 2022;

Hetherington & Rudolph, 2008; Orren, 1997), far less is known about the correlates of trust in the

era of the COVID-19 pandemic. This once-in-a-century health crisis swept across the nation in

the spring of 2020, transforming the economic, social, and political landscape in short order.

Compounding the instability caused by the pandemic was a series of overlapping crises ranging

from police abuse and racial injustice to pandemic-related unrest and an upsurge in lethal violence.

The convergence of these issues promoted the diffusion of panic and concern throughout the public

sphere (Bethune, 2021; Lati, 2021; Nicomedes & Avila, 2020), polarizing public sentiment (Hegland

et al., 2022) and potentially diminishing citizens’trust in government.

This article aims to inform the scientif‌ic understanding of public trust in the era of the COVID-19

pandemic. We use data from the American National Election Study to explore the factors predicting

trust in government circa the November 2020 presidential election. Focusing on this period of the

pandemic enables investigation into a broad range of potential predictors relating to salient social

conditions and public concerns, such as issues of political unrest, election integrity, racial injustice

in law enforcement, economic insecurity, and leaders’handling of the surging pandemic. Moreover,

because the nation was at a heightened risk of political violence and instability going into the

November elections (see Kishi & Jones, 2020), concentrating our analysis on this period allows

for inquiry into public attitudes at perhaps the most crucial political moment of the pandemic in

the United States. The following section provides an overview of the literature on political trust

and then outlines relevant public concerns and social conditions that may inf‌luence attitudes about

trust in government. Next, we detail our methodology and present f‌indings deriving from our anal-

yses. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of this work for criminological research and

criminal justice policy.

Trust in Government

The concept of trust in government is one of a family of terms referring to citizens’feelings about

their government. Although the concept appears straightforward, it is not easy to conceptualize

and measure. For Easton (1965), trust signif‌ies support for governmental policies, but it could

also represent conf‌idence in the political system itself. Likewise, trust in government could be con-

sidered an aspect of legitimacy (Tyler & Jackson, 2013) or consequential in the conferment of legit-

imacy (Hough et al., 2010), which grants authorities the moral foundations for obedience (Citrin &

Stoker, 2018). The most common measure of trust is the American National Election Studies (ANES)

item, “How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is

right?”Despite the various shortfalls of this item (see Citrin & Stoker, 2018), scholarly investiga-

tions, U.S. media polls, and Gallup and Pew surveys have used it for decades.

1

A signif‌icant body of research has examined the determinants of trust in government. Studies have

explored, among other factors, public evaluations of incumbent off‌icials, government institutions,

satisfaction with public policy, and the actions of government off‌icials as predictors of public

118 Criminal Justice Review 49(2)