COVID-19 and Gun Violence: Keeping Unknown Shocks and Volatility in Perspective

• Author: Dae-Young Kim
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/07340168221088571
• Published date: 01 June 2023
• Date: 01 June 2023
• Subject Matter: Articles

COVID-19 and Gun Violence:

Keeping Unknown Shocks and

Volatility in Perspective

Dae-Young Kim

Abstract

The current study estimates the varying effects of the pandemic on gun violence by social distancing

type, fatality, and location. Interrupted time series analyses are used to examine weekly crime data

from 2016 to 2020 in New York City. Box-Cox power transformation and GARCH techniques are

used to address the problems of non-normality and heteroscedasticity in the models. There were sig-

nif‌icant increases in fatal and non-fatal shootings during the relaxation of social distancing. The impact of

the BLM protests and depolicing is signif‌icant for non-fatal shootings. The pandemic led to greater

increases in gun violence in The Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Queens, as opposed to Staten

Island. In addition, there is some evidence of increases in the volatility of gun violence during the pan-

demic. High volatility impliescrime rates are in severe f‌lux, which then leads to greater uncertainty and

fear for public safety. This paper surfaces useful information for guiding policy and practice.

Keywords

COVID-19, ARCH/GARCH, gun violence, shootings, social distancing

Introduction

As the coronavirus has spread widely across many countries, the World Health Organization (WHO)

declared the outbreak of COVID-19 a global pandemic in March 2020 (WHO, 2020). The pandemic

is not an exception to the United States. Since the f‌irst cases of the coronavirus were conf‌irmed in

January 2020, the number of reported cases has exponentially increased across the country.

Various types of containment measures were issued to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, includ-

ing closures of schools, daycares, non-essential workplaces, and borders (Kaimann & Tanneberg,

2021). The implementation of containment measures differed across places in onset, length, and

intensity (Mervosh et al., 2020; Ortiz & Hauck, 2020).

There have been unintended consequences of the pandemic on gun violence. As a result of the

pandemic and social distancing, individuals are forced to be physically isolated, deal with

State University of New York –Buffalo State

Corresponding Author:

Dae-Young Kim, Criminal Justice Department, State University of New York –Buffalo State, 1300 Elmwood Ave, Buffalo,

NY 14222.

Email: kimd@buffalostate.edu

Article

Criminal Justice Review

2023, Vol. 48(2) 145-167

© 2022 Georgia State University

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/07340168221088571

journals.sagepub.com/home/cjr

unexpected unemployment and pay cuts, suffer from serious medical complications, and/or experi-

ence a feeling of strain (American Psychological Association, 2020; Falk et al., 2020; United

Nations, 2020), all of which might have led to increases in gun violence. The empirical evidence

in the United States is mixed and inconclusive. Some studies found signif‌icant increases in gun vio-

lence (Kim, 2022; Kim & Phillips, 2021; Rosenfeld & Lopez, 2020), while no signif‌icant changes

were detected in other studies (Abrams, 2020; Campedelli et al., 2020). Overall, the pandemic-gun

violence association is signif‌icant and greater in studies with relatively long-term post-pandemic

data. The pandemic might take several months to make an impact on gun violence. Given the

newness of the pandemic and a lack of suff‌icient evidence, further research should be performed

for more accurate conclusions correlating the pandemic and gun violence.

Using crime data from 2016 to 2020 in New York City, the current study explores the varying

effects of the pandemic on gun violence by social distancing type, fatality, and location.

Specif‌ically, this study analyzes whether gun violence decreased or increased under the SAHO

and/or during the relaxation of social distancing. In addition, this study will f‌ill a gap in the literature

by disaggregating gun violence by fatality and borough, estimating how the impact of the pandemic

differs depending on whether a fatality occurs and where a shooting occurs. Furthermore, it

explores whether high unemployment rates during the pandemic are associated with increased

gun violence. Finally, the Box-Cox transformation and GARCH methods are used to deal with

the problems of heteroscedasticity and non-normality resulting from omitted variable bias,

which will improve the reliability of the study outcomes. GARCH modeling also allows for exam-

ining changes in the variance of gun violence and thereby explaining its volatility during the pan-

demic, which will provide important implications for both policy makers and practitioners. In the

following section, an overview of theoretical and empirical frameworks will be offered for the

study of gun violence during the pandemic.

Literature Review

Theoretical Background

Strain theory can explain increases in gun violence as a result of the pandemic and its corresponding

containment measures. It discusses why certain individuals or groups have higher crime rates than

others. Drawing on the work of Durkheim on suicide, Merton (1938) applied the concept of anomie

to explain high crimes in the United States. Crime is seen as a consequence of anomie or strain resulting

from a discrepancy between a cultural emphasis on material success and legitimate means to attain such

a goal (Merton, 1938; Messner & Rosenfeld, 1997, 2006). When people are caught in structural unem-

ployment, poverty, and inequality, they are more likely to rely on illegal but more convenient means

(i.e., crimes) out of monetary strain and/or to achieve socially ascribed economic goals. Another theo-

retical explanation of strain and crime is general strain theory, which expanded the sources of strain

beyond the failure to attain material success. Agnew (2006) identif‌ied three situations of crime-

producing strain: failure to attain commonly held goals (monetary success and social status), removal

of positive stimuli (the loss of intimate relationships and the death of family members), and presentation

of negative stimuli (isolation, insults, physical abuse, and criminal victimization).

To put the theories into context, it is important to discuss the underlying reasons for the pandemic-gun

violence association. People experienced psychological distress and strain through a range of negative

events, such as limited access to employment, quality health care, healthy diets, and social interaction

(United Nations, 2020). For example, the practice of social distancing meant to slow the spread of the coro-

navirus by limiting face-to-face contact among people. However, it had adverse impacts on individuals’

mental health and wellbeing, including stress, frustration, loneliness, anxiety, and depression (Panchal

et al., 2021). In addition, the pandemic and containment orders forced many businesses and factories to

146 Criminal Justice Review 48(2)