Counting on the future: changing demographics.

• Position: TRENDS AND TRANSITIONS

Demographic forecasting is becoming a popular tool to help lawmakers make informed decisions on myriad public policy issues, a leading demographer told state legislators and staff at the National Conference of State Legislatures' 2005 "Strong States, Strong Nation" meeting. Emerging demographics will have ramifications for future elections, public policy and the country's workforce.

Electoral College numbers are sure to be altered in the next couple decades, said William H. Frey, a demographer from the University of Michigan's Population Studies Center and the Brookings Institution. By 2030, he believes Florida and Texas, for example, will gain nine and eight Electoral College votes, respectively. By that same year, New York could lose six votes and Pennsylvania and Ohio four.

In the 2004 election, final presidential Electoral College results favored "red states" (Republican) over "blue states" (Democrat) 286 to 252. Frey believes by 2032 "red state" numbers in the Electoral College could outpace "blue states" by a margin of 303 to 235.

"The good news for Democrats", said Frey, "is that demographers are often wrong."

Frey believes three main engines are driving changing demographics in America: immigration, the...