Counting consequences: one of the nation's leading demographers points to population changes that will shape the next decade.

• Author: Frey, William H.
• Position: CENSUS

Slowing immigration, aging baby boomers, a growing population of Latinos and the beginning of a "cultural generation gap" are all part of the mosaic created by the 2010 census.

The national head count this time around was a much scaled down version of earlier censuses only 10 questions were asked of each resident. And the old 50-plus item "long form" questionnaire, sent to a sample of residents, was eliminated.

Yet, by providing "just the facts" about the nation's population size, along with its age, race and household make up, the latest decennial count offers an authoritative, in some cases astounding, look at a country that has undergone sweeping demographic shifts.

Those shifts will direct the reshuffling of political lines occurring now as states finish the redistricting process, which follows every census. Some states are losing representation in Congress, while others, Texas in particular, will be gaining. Less apparent is how state policymakers will address these shifting demographics that may require changes in everything from schools to the workforce to health care.

Slow Growth

Although many Americans have the image of the United States being overrun by people, especially immigrants, the population growth rate registered for the previous decade was a tepid 9.7 percent, far below the 13.2 percent in the 1990s and even lower than the recession-plagued 1980s. To see a slower growth rate, we have to look back at the Great Depression when growth was a mere 7.3 percent.

Two things account for this. First, the immigration wave petered out in the last half of the decade as the economy started to sputter. The 1 million-a-year immigrant pace that characterized the 1990s and early 2000s has fallen sharply in recent years. But the greatest long-term generator of slower national growth is the aging of our population and a commensurate decline in the birth rate. Our median age is now 37.2 compared with 32.6 in 1990. Yet our national growth of almost 1 percent a year is far more robust than more geriatric nations such as Germany and Japan. And in some parts of the country, growth hasn't slowed at all. Nevada and Arizona continued to lead with 2000-2010 growth rates of 35 percent and 25 percent, respectively, despite dramatic late-decade slowdowns.

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