Countering Iranian Malign Influence: the need for a regional response.

• Author: Wunderle, William

Editor's Note: While global attention has been focused mostly on Iran's developing nuclear capability, the Iranian regime has also been very active in extending its malign influence throughout the Middle East, according to this extensively documented analysis by two military strategic planners. They recommend a multi-dimensional regional approach to counter these subversive and destabilizing threats.--Ed.

Iran poses a profound threat to the United States' national security and to the security of its friends and allies. Iran is run by a regime into which we have little insight, and its government is determined to acquire nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, support terrorism, and undermine political stability throughout the broader Middle East. (1)

Strategically, challenges in Iraq and Afghanistan have created an environment of instability that has enabled Iran to assert itself as a regional power. This is part of what has fueled Iran's aggressive nuclear program. While Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons has been the primary concern of the international community, other important concerns include Iran's pursuit of chemical and biological weapons, its ballistic missile program, its support for terrorism, and its malign influence in the region.

Iran is a regional problem that requires regional attention and leadership to develop and implement a regional solution. While the United States cannot adequately address this threat alone, America will continue to play a critical role by enabling regional partners to develop the capability and the capacity to counter Iran via the use of diplomatic, informational, and economic instruments of power--in conjunction with their military and security apparatus.

The Nature of the Iranian Threat

U.S. intelligence agencies have determined Iran is likely pursuing chemical and biological weapons. (2) While such weapons would be of limited military value, they could nevertheless change the nature of a conflict, as they would have psychological and possibly political effects far greater than their actual magnitude.

Iran's ballistic missile inventory is among the largest in the Middle East. One of the most disturbing aspects of the Iranian WMD program is its determined effort to construct ballistic missiles that will enable Tehran to deliver conventional (or potentially chemical, biological, or nuclear) warheads against its neighbors in the region and beyond. (3)

Iran's efforts since December 2005 to resume enrichment of uranium in defiance of the international community, along with its willingness to endure international condemnation, isolation, and economic disruptions in order to carry out nuclear activities covertly, indicate that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons capability. (4) According to the November 2007 unclassified National Intelligence Estimate of Iran's nuclear program, Iran could have a nuclear weapon sometime in the beginning to the middle of the next decade. (5)

In addition to the potential for a regional arms race and the breakdown of non-proliferation regimes worldwide, a nuclear capability could embolden Iran in its application of covert action and support to terror abroad. Iran's financial and lethal support for terrorist groups, along with its efforts to undermine stability in Iraq and Afghanistan, are directly responsible for hundreds of U.S., coalition, and civilian casualties. (6) As stated by Dr. Condoleezza Rice, "The regime's aggressive foreign policy and hegemonic aspirations, as demonstrated by its lethal assistance to militants in Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and the Palestinian territories, further underscores the threat to regional stability posed by Tehran." (7) In fact, the State Department's Annual Country Reports on Terrorism 2007 (issued April 2008) calls Iran "the most active state sponsor of terrorism," (8) and Secretary Rice has referred to Iran as the "central banker for terrorism." (9)

Qods Force--Exporting the Islamic Revolution Abroad

The Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (IRGC) is an ideologically motivated branch of the Islamic Republic of Iran's (IRI) military that is responsible for Iranian extraterritorial operations, including terrorist operations. The Qods (Jerusalem) Force is a special unit of the IRGC with the primary mission of organizing, training, equipping, and financing foreign Islamic revolutionary movements by building and maintaining contacts with underground Islamic militant organizations throughout the world. The Qods Force reports directly to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (10)

The Iranian regime uses the Qods Force to clandestinely exert military, political, and economic power to advance Iranian national interests outside of Iran and further its goal of regional hegemony. Qods Force global responsibilities include: gathering tactical intelligence; providing training, arms, and financial support to surrogate groups and terrorist organizations; and facilitating some of Iran's provision of humanitarian and economic support to Islamic causes.

Iran has used terrorism over the years as a means of projecting power, and also against internal dissidents and other adversaries in Europe. Iran's relationship with Lebanese Hizballah is illustrative of how the IRGC develops its proxies abroad. Unhappy with the coalition-building approach that the Lebanese Shi'a party Amal was taking with other confessional groups in the early 1980s, the Iranian Embassy in Beirut set out to identify radical elements of Amal that could be recruited, trained, and split away into a revolutionary organization that eventually emerged as Hizballah. The organization has increased in lethality since that time.

The July 2006 Hizballah attacks on Israel and the May 2008 Hizballah "coup" in Beirut are recent examples of Iran's use of terrorism to advance its regional policy goals and influence events in the Levant far beyond its economic or military might. Iran's activities are not limited to the Middle East alone. Iranian intelligence has teamed with Lebanese Hizballah and Sunni extremists to conduct attacks throughout Europe and South America as well. (11)

Iran's methodology of fomenting violence and instability via an increasingly cell-based Lebanese Hizballah model provides Iran with significant leverage at a very low cost. This model has been seen again and again in places like Turkey, Azerbaijan, Gaza, and Iraq. (12)

Implications for the Region

Iran seeks regional hegemony where it can dictate its will to vassal states, satellites, and neighbors who have been cowed by the threat of violence. Iran seeks to counter or co-opt emerging democracies in the region, such as those in Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan, by exploiting fissures--the dislocated and pools of the discontented--and via proxy warfare by surrogates.

Iran is acting in a neocolonial manner within the Arab world, infiltrating Gulf economies, radicalizing populations, and using a belligerent public diplomacy to intimidate neighboring states. (13) As will be seen in the following examples, Iran provides lethal aid, training, and financing to the Taliban, the Lebanese Hizballah, and insurgents in Iraq in an effort to destabilize emerging democracies in Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Iraq. It also provides material support to terrorist organizations, such as the Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), to derail the Middle East Peace process. A review of these actions across the region will be followed by a discussion of the regional approach needed to deal with this threat.

Iraq

Iran seeks a weakened and Shia-dominated Iraq that is incapable of posing a threat to Iran. Iranian involvement in Iraq is extensive, and poses a serious threat to U.S. national interests and U.S. and coalition forces. Iran provides training, funds, and weapons to a variety of Shia militias in Iraq which have been linked to assassinations, human rights abuses, and the planting of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) designed to maim and kill U.S. and coalition...