Countdown to 2000.

• Author: Bourquard, Jo Anne
• Position: Includes related article on litigations caused by the Year 2000 problem

With 19 months to go, government and business organizations are scrambling to make sure their computer systems recognize the year without a glitch.

It's a problem. It's a big, big problem. Many of the world's computer systems don't recognize the year 2000 because they have been programmed to recognize a year as two digits, such as 98 to represent 1998. When the calendar reaches Jan. 1, 2000, these systems may produce nonsensical results or crash because they will read the date 00 as 1900 rather than 2000. Unless computer systems are corrected, failures may occur throughout the world, crippling or bringing to a standstill business and government.

"The problem is global," says Steve Kolodney, director of the Washington Department of Information Services and head of the Year 2000 Project for the National Association of State Information Resource Executives (NASIRE). Every government and business around the world is faced with the same dilemma and an immovable deadline. The task of solving the problem is overwhelming. Millions and millions of lines of code need to be checked, corrected and tested.

IT'LL COST TRILLIONS

Worldwide costs are estimated between $300 billion and $600 billion, according to the GartnerGroup, an information technology consulting firm. And that's just for correcting the software. The costs jump to trillions when delays in business operations, hardware and litigation expenses are factored in. GartnerGroup estimates that worldwide, 30 percent of companies have not even addressed the problem. The Office of Management and Budget's estimate for fixing federal government computers is $4.7 billion. Estimates for correcting state government computer systems, compiled by NASIRE, range from $1.5 million to more than $250 million per state.

WILL SYSTEMS BE READY?

Fifty-five percent of government enterprises will not be ready when the calendar hits 2000 and it could have political ramifications for lawmakers, say members of the GartnerGroup. The 2000 dilemma has such serious consequences that it could unseat politicians who don't demonstrate effective leadership, warns Jim Cassell, a Gartner vice president. Because the public is very much aware of the problem, Cassell predicts that leaders who don't try to resolve the issue "during their watch" will be held responsible.

GartnerGroup executive George' Lindamood explains that even if one computer system is fixed, it can be contaminated by data from other computers. "The weakest link will break the chain. The real concern now is how to deal with disaster recovery. Things will go wrong, and the key will be to figure out how to quickly correct and get back on track."

An OMB assessment this spring found that while the federal government is moving ahead on the Y2K problem, progress is not rapid enough overall. Six agencies - the departments of Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Labor and Transportation, and the U.S. Agency for International Development - remain behind. The OMB also has concerns about nine additional agencies - the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Treasury, Justice, State, Housing and Urban Development, the Office of Personnel Management and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

The Federal Aviation Administration may not be able to correct year 2000 problems on schedule, according to a report from tire General Accounting Office (GAO), which could delay flights and jeopardize safety. The GAO also reported that despite aggressive...