Coronavirus Could Change the Future of Transit Funding: "Fears around public transportation as a spreader of disease--whether unfounded or not--plus more people working from home are likely to keep ridership and revenues low in the foreseeable future.".

• Author: Farmer, Liz
• Position: GOING PLACE

SOCIAL DISTANCING orders put in place during the height of the COVID-19 crisis are relaxing and many state and local officials are hopeful their budgets can start recovering. For public transit, though, where massive ridership declines persist, the financial future remains very much in doubt.

Transit agencies, particularly those in large cities that rely heavily on passenger fares to pay for operating costs, very well may be at a funding crossroads. Fears around public transportation as a spreader of disease--whether unfounded or not--plus more people working from home are likely to keep ridership and revenues low in the foreseeable future. While agencies were thrown a $25,000,000,000 financial lifeline by the Federal government in April, it is a short-term fix. If current circumstances continue, they very well may force a rethinking around the way transit is funded.

By all accounts, the more than 90% drop in ridership due to coronavirus lockdown orders has led to the biggest financial crisis most agencies ever have faced. Ridership on New York's Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) subway, which serves 5,500,000 riders every weekday, fell 94% in April. The MTA estimates it would lose up to $4,900,000,000 in fare revenue alone if the losses were sustained for an entire year.

In California, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) ridership, which averages 414,000 per day, fell by more than 90% in May. Officials there noted they are budgeting a more than $350,000,000 drop in fare revenue over the next year, assuming ridership remains somewhere near 70% below normal. Meanwhile, rail ridership on the Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) was down 88% in April and bus ridership was down by 71% from their usual combined 1,500,000 daily riders. Commuter rail line ridership on the city's Metra was down 97% from an average of 281,100 per day. The Regional Transportation Authority is estimating that the CTA and Metra combined will have more than $850,000,000 in revenue losses this year.

Agencies are paring down service in response but, given the essential role transit plays in urban mobility, shutting down is not an option. New York's decision to close its subway overnight for the first time in 115 years is, however, telling of how dire the situation is. Even as social distancing restrictions have eased, ridership is expected to remain at historic lows. The numbers have inched up, but the outlook remains grim: as of mid June, ridership on New York's subway...