Controlar la inflacion sera mas dificil en el futuro: El entorno deflacionario global ha sido benigno para el manejo de los precios: Roberto Rigobon.
La inflacion, como el sarampion, parecia una enfermedad controlada y extinta en el planeta. Sin embargo, reaparecio en el vecindario con especial virulencia. Peor aun. Como lo senala el experto en inflacion, profesor de MIT y miembro del consejo de economistas de Latin Trade Roberto Rigobon, las inflaciones del futuro podrian ser peores.
"Hoy entendemos mejor la inflacion. La hemos manejado con el banco central y el sistema financiero", dice. Sin embargo, no todo el exito se le debe atribuir a pericia y buena gestion. "Hemos tenido suerte porque en el mundo hay una gran fuerza deflacionaria", agrega.
Lo que ha ocurrido es que ha sido facil hacer politica monetaria en un entorno benigno. La globalizacion y el uso de mejor tecnologia de produccion y logistica han reducido los costos. Las negociaciones online aumentaron la competencia y, con ello, la deflacion.
Lo que piensa el economista es que a los administradores monetarios todavia les falta el bautismo de fuego. "No hemos puesto a prueba sistema. Controlar la inflacion cerca del 2% sera mas dificil en el futuro". Con menos presiones deflacionarias "tal vez las tasas de 8% y 10% sigan siendo raras, pero no las del 5%", dijo.
Rigobon y su colega Alberto Cavallo construyen, desde hace 13 anos, indicadores de inflacion usando cantidades enormes de datos extraidos de internet.
Con su proyecto 'Mil millones de precios' (Billion Prices Project) calcularon entre 2007 y 2016 la inflacion verdadera en Argentina. Las cifras originales habian sido manipuladas durante la mayor parte de esos anos, que correspondieron al gobierno de la expresidenta Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.
Los economistas confirmaron...
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