CONSIDERING A U.S.-IRANIAN DEAL.

• Author: Hornblow, Michael

Text:

CONSIDERING A U.S-IRANIAN DEAL

By George Foreman, STRATFOR

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/considering-us-iranian-deal

Reviewed by Michael Hornblow

In the current Presidential campaign Iran is the top foreign policy issue, but the focus is on Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons and what effect they would have on Israel. In the attached article written for STRATFOR, George Friedman takes a much broader view looking at Iran's geopolitical situation and speculating on what might happen if the U.S. and Iran were to have direct negotiations.

Friedman's scenario (some might call it a fantasy) runs as follows. Syria is in trouble and Assad may fall. If so, Iran loses an important ally and friend and in a weakened position accepts secret proposals from the U.S. for direct talks. Here Friedman makes the dubious assertion that nuclear weapons have never been the issue. "Neither the U.S. nor Iran cares about nuclear weapons as much as they pretend." The real issue, he claims, "has been the development of an Iranian sphere of influence following the withdrawal of the U.S. from Iraq."

The negotiations would therefore focus on geopolitical matters as well as the nuclear issue. Assuming the nuclear issue is resolved, our top priority would be Iranian assurances that there will be uninterrupted access to oil from the Persian Gulf and no extension of Iranian power...