Considering Pakistan.

AuthorGarner, Godfrey

As the dust of years of negotiations begins to settle and the assumption that Iran will continue to operate a robust nuclear research and development process becomes more of a reality, analysts around the world are scrambling to predict the reactions of other countries in the region. It would be foolhardy to disregard the potential for a mad rush to develop nuclear weapons capability, by most if not all non-nuclear nations in the region.

The sad fact is that nations have a tendency to attempt the subjugation of other nations through whatever means they have. Southwest Asian nations have a history of such, though they are by no means singular in this. The potential acquisition of nuclear devices by Iran, one of the largest countries in the region adds an entirely new dimension to the equation, however.

The greatest threat to the region in terms of nuclear armed nations is not the fact that too many nations have this capability, it is the fact that unstable nations may have, or obtain the capability. Some would argue that Iran is not necessarily considered unstable, but many nations in the region are.

A related factor is the concern of many analysts today as to the continually advancing state of instability in a country farther east, namely Pakistan, and though it does not share a border with Iran, it is close enough to be affected by events in that country.

Officials in our government charged with future plans concluded long ago that any semblance of stability in Pakistan may dissolve in the not too distant future. Such officials have been developing contingency plans for disintegration and civil war in Pakistan for years.

Predictions are that Pakistan may very well become a "failed state" descending into chaos, civil war, and rule by Islamic extremists before the end of this decade. A struggle for possession and control of Pakistan's nuclear weapons in such an event, would inevitably occur.

If there is any validity to these predictions, Pakistan would become fractious, and the competing forces there would find themselves almost completely dependent on foreign aid and assistance. The one thing they would potentially have, to use as barter and as bargaining chips would be the coveted nuclear weapons.

Such a dire prediction is not difficult to make in light of the fact that Pakistan has suffered from decades of military, political and economic mismanagement, years of divisive politics, and rampant corruption. The people there, especially in...

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