Confronting Uncertainty and Change: Challengers or Champions?

• Published date: 01 May 2023
• Author: Jeremy L. Hall
• Date: 01 May 2023
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13645

EDITORIAL

Confronting Uncertainty and Change: Challengers

or Champions?

Jeremy L. Hall

University of Central Florida

Correspondence

Email: jeremy.hall@ucf.edu

Just a few years ago, I sought an optimistic tone as we

entered the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic (Hall and

Battaglio 2020). I reflected on the policy challenges we

were facing during the trans-COVID era (Hall 2021).

Uncertainty dominated every sector of the economy, and

the public sector was challenged both with the obvious

task of resilience—delivering steadfast public services—

while also seeking out solutions to the broader concerns

the pandemic laid at society’s feet. Governments at all

levels, through varied strategies, have met these chal-

lenges with moderate success in spite of resistance to

many of the approaches they pursued. Whether related

to the pandemic (which has clearly been used as a win-

dow of opportunity by countless policy entrepreneurs) or

otherwise, a host of new problems have emerged,

stretching government capacity thin and shuffling the

values against which we have customarily judged agency

success (Hall 2021b).

It should come as no surprise that I list social equity

among the fast-rising concerns of our time. I have written

about this particular challenge on multiple occasions

(Hall, 2022; Pandey, Bearfield & Hall 2022; Stivers, et Al

2023). I have lamented the strain placed on society by vit-

riol and the rhetoric of clashing political parties and their

ideals, and the broader implications this has for social

capital, civic virtue, and stability (Hall 2022b; Hall 2023;

Van Wart, McIntyre & Hall 2023). Conflict within does not

go unnoticed by those without, and we have watched as

other nations step in to take advantage of such internal

domestic distractions by pursuing their own national

interests, resulting in incremental global destabilization.

The long-term goals of sustainability have seemingly tri-

umphed over the short-term goal of economic resilience,

forcing a reevaluation of agency goals and missions to

ensure compliance with the apparent shift in societal

values—not just those of the prominent interest groups.

And the exponential rise in computing power, not just

measured by processing speed, but by complexity of arti-

ficial intelligence now on par with human capabilities, will

pose threats to individuals, governments, and society at

large. While pundits have raised the specter of society’s

imminent demise at the invisible hands of artificial intelli-

gence, I suspect the first opportunity for widespread criti-

cism of this new technology will fall in the wake of the

2024 presidential election.

Some of these paradigms are inherently political, and

the shifting sands of public sentiment will mete out diffi-

cult, if not desired responses. Some transcend politics—at

least for now—because the parties have lacked the nec-

essary time and understanding to carve out policy plat-

forms around the emergent issues. But all will demand

our collective attention, and each will likely pose new

challenges, and likely some opportunities, to managers in

complex and overlapping ways. Consistency will be chal-

lenged by complexity, and managerial courage will be

tested.

What do these major shifts mean for public man-

agers? Elections in modern times seem no longer to ori-

ent voters around an equilibrium, but rather, like a

pendulum, move from one amplitude to its opposite with

each change in party control. As elections swing back and

forth, policy shifts in turn, leaving the fourth branch to

interpolate appropriate responses along the way. The fre-

quency of these oscillations now mean that agency man-

agers have little time to institutionalize much of anything

before tearing out the page and starting fresh with a new

set of administrative rules for the next administration.

We know there are many levers available to exert

political control over the bureaucracy in varying degrees

(Moe 1985; Wood & Waterman 1991; Scholz & Wei 1986;

Waterman & Meier 1998; Haeder & Yackee 2015). Whether

through executive orders, appointments, budgets, or

Office of Management and Budget (OMB) oversight, poli-

tics influences bureaucratic response. Public managers

operating in such a tumultuous environment will be

asked to reevaluate their positions on each dimension

with each oscillation of political control. They will, of

course, likely take advantage of information asymmetry

to attenuate the effects of such change on their day-to-

day activities when they find themselves out of alignment

Accepted: 13 April 2023

DOI: 10.1111/puar.13645

Public Admin Rev. 2023;83:461–467. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/puar © 2023 by The American Society for Public Administration. 461