Confronting the Threat of Ballistic Missile Proliferation.

• Author: BEARD, TIMOTHY M.

DESPITE THE END of the Cold War, America has not fully escaped the threat of attack by intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). On Jan. 23, 1996, a triumphant Pres. Clinton proclaimed, "For the first time since the dawn of the nuclear age, there are no Russian missiles pointed at America's children." Although the fall of the Soviet Union may have reduced the risk of a ballistic missile exchange between the superpowers, it did not eliminate the threat from smaller, rogue states. Several governments, in an attempt to expand their military capabilities and international influence, have embarked on programs to strengthen their arsenals. Increasingly, those attempts include research and development of NBC weapons (nuclear, biological, and chemical) of mass destruction and ballistic missiles.

According to former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, more than 25 nations have, or will soon have, ballistic missiles, and a comparable number possess or are developing weapons of mass destruction to complement these delivery systems. Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and North Korea--all noted sponsors of international terrorism--pose the greatest threat to the U.S.

The induction of those nations into the vaunted "ballistic missile club" could weaken America's faith in its long-held policy of deterrence. Deterrence--the theory that nations will be prevented from taking certain actions when faced with the threat of retaliation--assumes the adversary is rational. However, that assumption is not guaranteed, especially in light of the unpredictable and often irrational past behavior of several leaders of rogue regimes, particularly Libya's Muammar al-Qaddafi and North Korea's Kim Jong Il. Given the reckless tendencies of these despots, American policymakers can no longer be completely assured that the threat of retaliation will preclude attack. In the face of these threats, America must deploy a limited national missile defense system to provide the homeland with added protection against ballistic missile attacks.

North Korea and Iran pose the most prominent threats to American security interests. Those two nations possess the technology and research infrastructure to support missile development programs that have the greatest potential to threaten the U.S. homeland.

Iran has extensive experience with ballistic missiles. During the Iran-Iraq war, Iran fired nearly 120 Scuds at Iraq, including 77 missiles during a 52-day period known as the War of the Cities. The backbone of the Iranian ballistic missile force is the Scud B, obtained from Libya and North Korea. Israeli analysts estimate that Iran possesses 250-300 Scud Bs and 60 to 100 longer-range Scud Cs. With these missiles, Iran could strike targets in the other Gulf States, eastern Turkey, and several states of the former Soviet Union. Iran is also attempting to acquire newer, more advanced missiles, such as the No Dong and the Taepo Dong 1 and 2--the latest missile prototypes under development in North Korea.

Using North Korean technology as a foundation, Iran has initiated its own missile design and development program. On July 23, 1998, it tested the Shahab-3, a medium-range missile with an estimated range of 800 miles derived from the No Dong. This test--marking further progress toward Iran's apparent goal of possessing an intercontinental ballistic missile--has added to the Clinton Administration's already deep concern about Iran's strategic capabilities, especially its growing chemical and biological stockpiles. Experts claim Iran is seeking to develop a missile in the 3,500-mile range in the next few years, which would present a direct threat to Europe and American forces stationed there. If Iran develops an even longer-range missile, the U.S. could be in peril.

North Korea--the most technologically advanced of the rogue states and the most notorious proliferator of missile-related technology--poses the gravest threat to the security of the American homeland. After acquiring missile technology from the Soviet Union in the early 1980s, North Korea developed a sizable indigenous production capability of at least 100 Scud missiles annually. Assessments by the South Korean Defense Ministry claim that North Korea has several hundred Scuds in its inventory. All of those missiles are capable of hitting...