Conflict-related Sexual Violence and Rebel Group Fragmentation

• Author: Austin C. Doctor,Robert Ulrich Nagel
• Date: 01 August 2020
• Published date: 01 August 2020
• DOI: 10.1177/0022002719899443
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Conflict-related Sexual

Violence and Rebel

Group Fragmentation

Robert Ulrich Nagel

1

and Austin C. Doctor

2

Abstract

To what extent does sexual violence influence rebel group fragmentation? A sub-

stantial body of research explores wartime rape as a cohesion-building mechanism

following forced recruitment. However, the relationship between sexual violence

and broader organizational structural integrity has not been systematically tested.

Our study on the effects of sexual violence on rebel group fragmentation provides

this test. We argue that sexual violence increases cohesion at the battalion level but

increases the risk of fragmentation of the broader organization because lieutenants

are more likely to split from organizations if they are confident that their sub-

ordinate battalions are cohesive and will follow them. We test this argument on a

global sample of 105 rebel organizations active between 1989 and 2014. The results

provide robust support for the argument showing sexual violence increases the

probability of fragmentation by a factor of six. This presents a crucial contribution to

our understanding of sexual violence and rebel group fragmentation.

Keywords

rebel groups, fragmentation, sexual violence, cohesion, civil war

In October 2005, the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) fragmented and

the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army—Mini Minawi (SLM/A-MM) faction

emerged. In the preceding two years, Human Rights Watch and the US State

1

Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA

2

Department of Government, Eastern Kentucky University, Richmond, KY, USA

Corresponding Author:

Robert Ulrich Nagel, Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security, 1412 36th St., NW.,

Washington, DC 20057, USA.

Email: nagel.robert@me.com

Journal of Conflict Resolution

2020, Vol. 64(7-8) 1226-1253

ªThe Author(s) 2020

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DOI: 10.1177/0022002719899443

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Department reported that the SLM/A had perpetrated rapes. This case is not unique;

other groups that committed sexual violence have fragmented, such as the

United Liberation Movement of Liberia for Democracy (ULIMO), which split into

ULIMO-J and ULIMO-K. This sequence and pattern of events seem surprising

considering that wartime rape is associated with increased group cohesion (Cohen

2013a, 2016, 2017), and we would intuiti vely expect groups committing sexual

violence to be less likely to fragment. Accordingly, this article examines the

question: to what extent does conflict-related sexual violence influence the like-

lihood of rebel group fragmentation?

Conflict-related sexual violence is now widely recognized as a critical issue of

human and international securit y. A substantial research body has co nvincingly

shown that wartime rape cannot be reduced to the narrative of a weapon of war but

that there are conflict, group, and individual combatant factors that shape the perpe-

tration of sexual violence (Eriksson Baaz and Stern 2009; Johansson and Sarwari

2019; Leiby 2009; Loken 2017; Muvumba Sellstro¨m 2015; Whitaker, Walsh, and

Conrad 2019). One prominent explanation is that a lack of cohesion among comba-

tants increases the likelihood of rape because it helps perpetrators forge social bonds

(Cohen 2013a, 2013b, 2016, 2017; E. J. Wood 2009, 2018). Although recent studies

have started to examine the effects of sexual violence on conflict management and

outcomes (Chu and Braithwaite 2018; Nagel 2019; Kirschner and Miller 2019;

Hultman and Johansson 2017), the implicit contention that wartime rape increases

groups’ organizational integrit y has not been directly empiricall y tested. In this

article, we provide this test with a study on the effects of rebel sexual violence on

the event of fragmentation, thereby adding an important contribution to the literature

on conflict-related sexual violence.

Rebel group fragmentation shapes conflict dynamics such as the intensity and

duration of fighting (K. G. Cunningham, Bakke, and Seymour 2012; Findley and

Rudloff 2012) as well as the durability of peace (Rudloff and Findley 2016; Nilsson

2010) making it inherently policy-relevant. Accordingly, a number of studies have

investigated which factors contribute to rebel group fragmentation (Asal, Brown,

and Dalton 2012; McLauchlin and Pearlman 2012; Staniland 2014; Seymour,

Bakke, and Cunningham 2016; Bakke 2014; Tamm 2016). These studies largely

emphasize the external shocks or pressures that increase a group’s probability of

fragmentation. We contribute to this literature by investigating the intragroup fac-

tors that may influence a rebel lieutenant’s decision to form a new armed faction.

We highlight the importance of understanding the structure of armed groups beyond

the simplified commander–combatant model and emphasize the distinction between

intraunit cohesion and organizational structural integrity (Kenny 2010). Specifically,

we argue that the increased levels of intraunit cohesion, which result from recent

episodes of sexual violence, give rebel lieutenants greater confidence in their ability

to mobilize the troops needed to mount a viable rebel splinter faction. This presents a

valuable contribution to our understanding of rebel organizations and leadership

structures beyond the dichotomy of principal and agent.

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