Conflict-induced IDPs and the Spread of Conflict

• Author: Heidrun Bohnet,Fabien Cottier,Simon Hug
• DOI: 10.1177/0022002716665209
• Published date: 01 April 2018
• Date: 01 April 2018
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Conflict-induced IDPs

and the Spread of

Conflict

Heidrun Bohnet

1

, Fabien Cottier

2

,

and Simon Hug

2

Abstract

Recent scholarship has found evidence that refugee flows may inadvertently con-

tribute to the spread of conflict across borders. Little is known, however, about the

spatial diffusion of conflict within a state’s borders and what role internal displace-

ment plays in such a dynamic. This question is of relevance because of the particular

marginalization of internally displaced persons, which make them at risk of predation

and militarization by armed groups. Drawing on a novel global data set on internal

displacement, we evaluate this question and find evidence for a similar mechanism

leading to conflict spread operating at the domestic level.

Keywords

conflict, internal armed conflict, national security, international security

Recent scholarship has investigated how refugee flows may increase, directly or

indirectly, the risk of conflict as well as the locus and clustering of violence (Lischer

2005; Ru

¨egger 2013; Salehyan and Gleditsch 2006). The evidence suggests that

refugees may inadvertently contribute to conflict spread. Refugees are, however,

hardly the only ones to be forced to leave their homes due to conflict and persecu-

tion, as a substantial number of displaced persons remain stranded within the borders

1

Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC), Bonn, Germany

2

Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland

Corresponding Author:

Heidrun Bohnet, Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC), Pfarrer-Byns-Straße 1, 53121 Bonn,

Germany.

Email: heidrun.bohnet@bicc.de

Journal of Conflict Resolution

2018, Vol. 62(4) 691-716

ªThe Author(s) 2016

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DOI: 10.1177/0022002716665209

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of their home state. In fact, at the end of 2014, the number of internally displaced

persons (IDPs)

1

worldwide stood at nearly twice the number of refugees, or in other

words a staggering 38.2 million compared to some 19.2 million refugees (Internal

Displacement Monitoring Centre [IDMC] 2015; United Nations High Commissioner

for Refugees [UNHCR] 2015b).

2

For example, while the number of Syrian refugees

has passed 4 million, the UN estimates that a further 7.6 million have been displaced

within Syria, unable or unwilling to leave the country (UNHCR 2015a). Further-

more, although examples like Darfur and Uganda have shown that IDPs can play a

significant role in the spread of conflict, interna l displacement has been largely

ignored by conflict scholars. Apart from occasional case studies (see, for instance,

Lischer 2008; Muggah 2006), no quantitative analysis has focused more system-

atically on the effects of conflict-induced internal displacement on the spread of

domestic conflict until now. In this article, we propose to fill this gap by investigat-

ing the following research question:

Research Question : Does internal displacement increase the risk of conflict

spread within the borders of a country?

We conceive of conflict spread as diffusion of conflict incidences from one

region A in a country to another region B in the same country. This can result in

an extension or a shift of the conflict zone. We rely here partly on Lake and Roth-

child’s (1998, 4) definition which states that diffusion occurs ‘‘when conflict in one

area alters the likelihood of conflict elsewhere,’’ focusing in particular on the pro-

cess of disruption of ethnic balance (Lake and Rothchild 1998, 25).

3

In the empirical

part of this article, we employ this simple definition of diffusion but also use a more

stringent definition that should alleviate possible endogeneity concerns.

Analyzing diffusion patterns at the domestic level is important since domestic

conflict might eventually spread over international borders, as seen currently in the

case of Syria. Refugees have once been IDPs and, therefore, studying IDPs and their

role in the conflict dynamic is essential to be able to prevent the spread of domestic

and international conflict. It should be stressed, however, that we consider only

internal displacement caused by conflict and persecution and exclude from our

analysis forced displacement due to natural or man-made disasters or any form of

voluntary migration.

We argue that IDPs can change the ethnic composition in an area and provide

ethnic support to rebel groups, in a pattern similar to that of refugee flows (see, for

instance, Ru

¨egger 2013; Salehyan and Gleditsch 2006) and, thus lead to conflict

spread. To evaluate this claim, we rely on a newly created spatial data set on internal

displacement, which we refer to as the Global Internal Displacement Patterns

(G-IDP) data set and, in doing so, contribute to overcome the lack of quantitative

and spatial data in this area of research. Our analysis focuses on conflict diffusion in

Africa from 2008 to 2010. We find that internal displacement may contribute to the

spread of ethnic conflict.

692 Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(4)