Conflict conundrums.

• Author: Potier, Tim
• Position: Europe

EUROPE'S UNRESOLVED disputes--Kosovo's bid for independence, the breakaway regions of Georgia, the long-festering Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the Greek-Turkish divide in Cyprus--present the United States and other global and regional powers with a policy dilemma: how to balance a people's call for autonomy with a desire to maintain the territorial integrity of existing states and preserve regional stability. None of these cases exists in a vacuum. A U.S. decision to support autonomy in one area, such as Kosovo, could embolden demands for independence by other groups. In turn, the manner in which Europe's frozen conflicts are resolved could have a broader impact, setting precedents that might be cited for Taiwan, West Papua or southern Sudan, for example.

U.S. policymakers have a choice: They can either apply guiding principles in brokering or mediating those disputes, or consider each case independently in light of U.S. geopolitical interests. International law falls, for the most part, on the side of territorial integrity. Washington is similarly wary of lending momentum to a potential Balkanization of the entire world. The question is whether "consistency for consistency's sake" is the best approach. To escape the quandary that the current stalemates in Kosovo, Cyprus and the Caucasus present, it may be time to utilize some creative thinking that breaks us out of the "independence versus integrity" dilemma.

Countdown for Kosovo

EVER SINCE the ethnic troubles that rocked the province in the spring of 2004, the international community has been increasingly concerned that Kosovar Albanians--frustrated so far in their bid for independence from Serbia--could turn on the UN force that is precariously keeping the peace. Such a development would destabilize the whole region. Those concerns prompted the United Nations to commence (informally at first) status talks on Kosovo in November at Washington's behest, after the voluntary surrender of Kosovo's then-Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj to the War Crimes Tribunal in the Hague.

Washington has been at pains to reassure all interested actors that the outcome of the status talks has not been determined, but it appears the United States has reconciled itself to the future possibility of an independent Kosovo. That development could have far-reaching implications for Serbia, for America's and Europe's relations with Russia, and for Europe's other aspirants of autonomy.

Most immediately, Serbia would have to be placated. An independent Kosovo could rile and give strength to Belgrade's Serbian radicals. Serbians would be particularly angered by independence for Kosovo, given Serbia's recent democratic progress. In addition, Serbia would have to be reassured with legally defined guarantees on the protection of the Serbian minority in Kosovo and its cultural heritage.

Although Belgrade publicly continues to reject independence for Kosovo, it has privately come to acknowledge that it may be unavoidable. If Montenegro moves this year towards its own independence through a referendum, Kosovo's continuing status as some form of UN-managed Serbian province will look ever more absurd.

The international community could try to induce Serbia's cooperation through the prospect...