A conceptual framework for tackling knowable unknown unknowns in project management

• Published date: 01 May 2014
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jom.2014.03.003
• Date: 01 May 2014
• Author: Tyson R. Browning,Ranga V. Ramasesh

Journal

of

Operations

Management

32

(2014)

190–204

Contents

lists

available

at

ScienceDirect

Journal

of

Operations

Management

jo

ur

nal

ho

me

pa

ge:

www.elsevier.com/locate/jom

A

conceptual

framework

for

tackling

knowable

unknown

unknowns

in

project

management

Ranga

V.

Ramasesh∗,

Tyson

R.

Browning

M.J.

Neeley

School

of

Business,

Texas

Christian

University,

TCU

Box

298530,

Fort

Worth,

TX

76129,

United

States

a

r

t

i

c

l

e

i

n

f

o

Article

history:

Received

1

October

2012

Received

in

revised

form

12

March

2014

Accepted

15

March

2014

Available

online

24

March

2014

Keywords:

Unknown

unknowns

Project

management

Project

uncertainty

Complexity

Risk

management

a

b

s

t

r

a

c

t

Understanding

and

dealing

with

the

unknown

is

a

major

challenge

in

project

management.

An

extensive

body

of

knowledge—theory

and

technique—exists

on

the

“known

unknowns,”

i.e.,

uncertainties

which

can

be

described

probabilistically

and

addressed

through

the

conventional

techniques

of

risk

management.

Although

some

recent

studies

have

addressed

projects

where

the

existence

of

unknown

unknowns

(unk

unks)

is

readily

apparent

or

may

be

assumed

given

the

type

of

project—e.g.,

new

product

development

or

new

process

implementation—very

little

work

has

been

reported

with

respect

to

projects

in

general

on

how

a

project

manager

might

assess

its

vulnerability

to

unk

unks.

In

this

paper,

we

present

a

conceptual

framework

to

deal

with

(i.e.,

recognize

and

reduce)

knowable

unk

unks

in

project

management.

The

framework

is

supported

by

insights

from

a

variety

of

theories,

case

analyses,

and

experiences.

In

this

framework,

we

first

present

a

model

of

the

key

factors—relating

to

both

project

design

and

behavioral

issues—that

increase

the

likelihood

of

unk

unks

and

a

set

of

propositions

linking

these

factors

to

unk

unks.

We

then

present

a

set

of

design

and

behavioral

approaches

that

project

managers

could

adopt

to

reduce

knowable

unk

unks.

Our

framework

fills

a

gap

in

the

project

management

literature

and

makes

a

significant

practical

contribution:

it

helps

project

managers

diagnose

a

project

to

recognize

and

reduce

the

likelihood

of

unk

unks

and

thus

deal

more

effectively

with

the

otherwise

unrecognized

risks

and

opportunities.

©

2014

Elsevier

B.V.

All

rights

reserved.

1.

Introduction

On

June

4,

1996,

the

massive

Ariane

5

rocket,

launched

on

its

maiden

voyage

from

the

European

Space

Agency’s

center

in

French

Guiana,

exploded

39

s

into

flight,

destroying

four

satellites

on

board

(Lions,

1996).

How

could

such

an

unexpected

outcome

befall

a

project

that

took

ten

years,

$7

billion,

and

tens

of

millions

of

hours

of

human

labor

and

expertise?

In

a

postmortem

analysis,

the

Agency

noted

that

the

problem

was

due

to

a

malfunction

in

the

rocket’s

guidance

system

software,

and

it

acknowledged

that

the

system

was

not

fully

analyzed

or

understood,

perhaps

because

the

soft-

ware

had

worked

successfully

with

Ariane

4.

More

generally,

the

disastrous

outcome

was

due

to

an

uncertainty

of

which

the

Agency

was

unaware

prior

to

the

launch—an

unknown

unknown

(or

“unk

unk”

in

common

industry

parlance).

Yet,

was

this

uncertainty

truly

unknowable,

or

was

it

potentially

knowable

but

just

escaped

recog-

nition

by

the

project

management

team?

In

this

paper

our

basic

∗Corresponding

author.

Tel.:

+1

817

257

7194;

fax:

+1

817

257

7227.

E-mail

addresses:

r.ramasesh@tcu.edu

(R.V.

Ramasesh),

t.browning@tcu.edu

(T.R.

Browning).

premise

is

that

just

because

something

is

unforeseen

does

not

necessarily

mean

that

it

is

unforeseeable.

Through

appropriate

analysis,

it

is

possible

to

recognize

and

reduce

some

unk

unks

which

are

actually

knowable.

We

examine

the

factors

that

drive

knowable

unk

unks

in

a

project

and

present

a

conceptual

framework

to

deal

with

(i.e.,

recognize

and

reduce)

them

in

project

management.

Our

framework

is

based

on

several

key

factors—relating

to

both

project

(system)

design

and

behavioral

(organizational)

issues—and

a

set

of

propositions

linking

these

factors

to

the

increased

likelihood

of

unk

unks.

We

then

present

a

set

of

design

and

behavioral

approaches

that

project

managers

could

adopt

to

reduce

unk

unks—i.e.,

to

con-

vert

the

knowable

unk

unks

to

known

unknowns.

A

project

is

“a

temporary

endeavor

undertaken

to

create

a

unique

product,

service,

or

result”

(PMI,

2013).

Two

characteris-

tics

distinguish

projects

from

operations

in

general.

First,

whereas

most

organizations

and

operations

are

ongoing

concerns,

a

project

is

relatively

temporary

and

finite.

Second,

projects

are

by

defi-

nition

“unique,”

meaning

that

they

are

trying

to

produce

a

new

result

that

has

not

been

produced

before,

at

least

not

exactly.

The

decreased

time

frame

and

increased

novelty

of

projects

rela-

tive

to

other

operations

brings

heightened

challenges

with

respect

to

unk

unks.

The

emerging

landscape

of

business

management

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jom.2014.03.003

0272-6963/©

2014

Elsevier

B.V.

All

rights

reserved.