Compliance with Public Health Orders: The Role of Trust, Representation, and Expertise

• Published date: 01 December 2023
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10659129231182375
• Author: Katelyn E. Stauffer,Susan M. Miller,Lael R. Keiser
• Date: 01 December 2023

Article

Political Research Quarterly

2023, Vol. 76(4) 1888–1905

© The Author(s) 2023

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/10659129231182375

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Compliance with Public Health Orders:

The Role of Trust, Representation, and

Expertise

Katelyn E. Stauffer

1

, Susan M. Miller

2

, and Lael R. Keiser

3



Abstract

Governments rely on citizen compliance to implement policies. Yet, in the current climate where citizens expr ess low

levels of trust in government, gaining compliance can prove challenging. Scholarship suggests other factors tha t might

promote compliance even in the absence of trust. We examine two: expertise and descrip tive representation across

race, gender, and partisanship. We experimentally activate general (dis)trust in government and use a conjoint ex-

periment to examine multiple factors that might shape citizens’willingness to comply with and trust government

guidance related to COVID-19. We f‌ind that shared partisanship and consultation with experts have the large st effects.

We also see an effect of shared racial identity on compliance for Black Americans, at least when trust is relatively low. As

we consider the role of trust, expertise, and descriptive representation across race, gender, and partisanship simul-

taneously, the results offer important insights into factors that underpin citizens’willingness to comply with government

mandates. Our results have important real-world implications, highlighting the importance of bipartisan responses to

crises as well as ensuring racial representation in government. They also demonstrate that explicitly involving experts in

decision-making processes increases citizens’willingness to comply with policy.

Keywords

local government representation, public health compliance, representative bureaucracy, COVID-19, partisanship, race

and gender identity politics

Governments face severe challenges in getting the public

to comply with rules and guidance that improve public

health and safety, as the COVID-19 pandemic high-

lighted. While the COVID-19 pandemic is a high-prof‌ile

example, compliance is a challenge in many policy areas

including tax (Scholz and Lubell 1998), criminal justice

(Tyler 2006), and education (Bryk and Scheider 2003).

In many policy areas, governments rely heavily on

voluntary compliance with directives to achieve policy

goals. Considerable research highlights the important role

that trust plays in compliance with policy directives and

cooperation with government actors (see Tyler 2006;

Scholz and Lubell 1998). As trust in the US federal

government is at near historic lows (Pew Research Center

2021a), many scholars and practitioners point to lack of

trust in government as a primary cause of non-compliance

with recommendations and laws (Blair et al. 2017;

Brodeur, Grigoryeva and Kattan 2021;Bargain and

Aminjonov 2020;Pak, McBride and Adegboye 2021;

Wynen et al. 2022).

The low levels of trust in government are accompanied

by concerns that scientif‌ic or professional expertise no

longer has the power to sway public opinion, at least

among some groups.

1

Expertise is often viewed as a

counterbalance to politicized decision-making in gov-

ernment and its use could be a strategy to overcome a lack

of trust and increase compliance. For example, survey

respondents in Belgium who had higher levels of trust in

the experts who advised government on COVID-19 were

more likely to express intentions to get vaccinated than

those with low trust (Wynen et al. 2022). Therefore, a loss

1

University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA

2

Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ, USA

3

University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA

Corresponding Author:

Lael R. Keiser, Truman School of Government and Public Affairs,

University of Missouri, 615 Locust Street Building, Columbia, MO

65211, USA.

Email: keiserl@missouri.edu

in trust of experts may exacerbate the consequences of

distrust in government. In a recent survey, 54% of

American adults report that they align very/somewhat

well with the statement that “public health off‌icials are

not telling us everything they know about COVID-19

vaccines”(Pew Research Center 2021b), highlighting

the public’s skepticism toward experts. Rather than a

reliance on experts, many argue that Americans are more

likely to trust information based on shared partisanship

or other identities such as race or gender (Bromwich et al.

2021).

Extant research has examined the impact of trust,

expertise, and descriptive representation separately and

does not typically use research designs allowing for causal

inference. This leaves unanswered the question of whether

shared identity based on race, gender, or partisanship

generate greater compliance, or whether relying on ex-

pertise is more consequential. Furthermore, are the effects

of these factors conditioned by trust in government?

Answering these questions advances theory and provides

relevant insights for public off‌icials seeking to increase

policy compliance.

Using a conjoint experiment and experimentally ac-

tivating (dis)trust in government, we consider the effect of

these different factors—trust, expertise, and

representation—on compliance with—and views toward

COVID-19-related—stay-at-home orders and trust in

vaccine guidance. Our design allows us to consider the

effects of each of these factors simultaneously, contrib-

uting to existing research in this area. In doing so, we

examine the relative importance of both shared identity

and expertise in increasing compliance and whether these

effects have differing impacts based on levels of trust.

Some clear patterns emerge in our results. Shared

partisanship and consultation with experts have the largest

effects on compliance and trust in vaccine guidance. We

do not f‌ind evidence that these effects are conditional on

levels of trust. Digging a little deeper, we see that the role

of expertise is greatest when respondents and elected

off‌icials do not share a party, for both Republicans and

Democrats. Among Black Americans, we also see an

effect of shared racial identity on compliance among those

with lower levels of trust.

Our results have important real-world implications,

highlighting the importance of bipartisan responses to

crises as well as ensuring racial representation in

government. They also demonstrate that explicitly in-

volving experts in decision-making processes increases

citizens’willingness to comply with policy. This is

particularly striking given contemporary skepticism

that expertise is valued by the public. Perhaps more

importantly, our results point to the interplay between

shared partisanship and expertise. Our results under-

score the way in which experts can continue to play an

important role in government decision-making. While

partisanship appears to dominate citizens’behavioral

intentions and attitudes when they share partisan

identity with elected off‌icials, the role of experts be-

comes important when citizens cannot rely on shared

partisanship as a cue about the trustworthiness of the

information provided.

Policy Compliance: Trust, expertise, and

symbolic representation

Numerous scholars have highlighted the important role

of trust in authorities for understanding compliance

(Scholz and Lubell 1998;Kagan and Scholz 1984;

Murphy 2004;Scholz and Penney 1995). It is costly for

individuals to comply with many regulations and

guidance, the benef‌its are often not realized immediately,

the risks of penalty are often low, and individuals have an

incentive to free-ride when they can still benef‌it from the

voluntary compliance of others (Scholz and Pinney

1995;Scholz and Lubell 1998). Trust helps to over-

come the collective action problem in compliance by

providing a rationale to comply (i.e., belief that future

collective benef‌its will be realized).

A high level of trust in government is associated with

compliance with tax laws (Braithwaite and Makkai 1994;

Kirchler 2007;Scholz and Lubell 1998). Trust is also

linked to a willingness of citizens to report crime (Tyler

2006). Moreover, research suggests that trust can increase

compliance with public health policies. Bargain and

Aminjonov (2020) f‌ind an association between citizen

movement during stay-at-home orders and average levels

of trust within a region (see also Brodeur, Grigoryeva and

Kattan 2021;Blair et al. 2017;Guglielmi et al. 2020;

Dohle, Wingen and Mike Schreiber. 2020;Wynen et al.

2022).

Given that trust in government plays a central role in

policy compliance, the diminished trust in government, at

least at the federal level (see Pew Research Center 2021a),

raises concerns about achieving compliance with gov-

ernment directives. This is particularly concerning when a

lack of compliance is potentially harmful to the well-being

of citizens, and when particular communities have low

levels of trust in government. Citizen reactions to gov-

ernment guidance related to the COVID-19 pandemic

clearly highlight this issue. In light of this, it is important

to understand the relationship between trust and other

factors that might enhance compliance. In particular, a key

question is whether factors such as expertise or descriptive

representation can increase compliance under conditions

of low trust. In other words, can these factors work to

offset a general lack of trust in order to increase

compliance?

Stauffer et al. 1889