Mercado complejo: la demanda petrolera global aumenta, pero en América Latina no todos podrán enfrentarla.
Author | Coronado, Eduardo |
Según proyecciones de la Agencia Internacional de Energía (ALE), la demanda global de petróleo aumentará 2.5% en 2008, totalizando 88.2 millones de barriles diarios. Eso podría significar una buena oportunidad para las empresas petroleras de América Latina, pero no todas están en condiciones de aprovecharla.
Los analistas del sector coinciden en que la estatal brasileña Petrobras es la mejor posicionada para beneficiarse del buen momento del mercado. Además de la creciente expansión de sus operaciones internacionales, Petrobras espera producir este año 1.9 millones de barriles diarios, 7.9% más de lo registrado en 2006. "Más allá de ese crecimiento, es fácil inferir que la producción va a continuar aumentando a tasas por arriba de 5%, debido al gran número de proyectos en marcha", dice Carlos Henrique Dumortout, gerente de Difusión de Relaciones con Inversionistas de Petrobras.
Incluso, la gigante brasileña tiene planes para producir hasta 2.37 millones de barriles por día en 2011. Para lograrlo ha puesto en operación este año varios campos y plataformas en Brasil. "Las metas de Petrobras demandan nuevas plataformas que, en parte, ya están en construcción", explica Dumortout.
La estatal venezolana PDVSA también parece ubicarse en el lado ganador. "Siendo exportador de elevadas cantidades de petróleo, recibirá beneficios muy claros de los altos precios", dice David Shields, un analista independiente en Ciudad de México. A mediados de este año, PDVSA enfrentaba problemas operativos que sembraban dudas sobre el objetivo oficial de aumentar su producción a 3.2 millones de barriles diarios a finales de 2007, La meta para 2012 es elevar la cifra a 5.8 millones de barriles.
La situación de otro grande del sector, la estatal mexicana Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), es muy distinta. "Su producción y nivel de exportación tienden a la baja por la declinación de Cantarell, el principal yacimiento del país. Además, Pemex es una empresa que mira fuertemente hacia su mercado interno, el cual tiene que abastecer a precios...
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