Competing Visions of the Global Future: "... Thinking about different configurations of power can help frame sharper questions about national purposes and priorities...".

• Author: Kegley, Charles W.
• Position: WORLDVIEW

AS THE 20TH CENTURY drew to a close, many people believed that America's preeminent position in the world was well entrenched. In addition to having a formidable strategic arsenal, the U.S. possessed conventional military capabilities without equal. On the ground, its forces boasted awesome speed, agility, and firepower; in the skies, it combined stealth technology with precision-guided munitions; and at sea, America had the singular capacity to project power over vast distances. With defense expenditures exceeding the combined total of all other great powers, the country's military looked invincible.

Economic strength complemented military muscle. The U.S. accounted for more than 40% of the world's production and 50% of its research and development. It ranked first in global competitiveness, was the home to the majority of the world's largest companies, and accounted for almost one-third of the global gross domestic product. America's large, diverse, and innovative economy gave its policymakers and diplomats extraordinary leverage over other countries in international commercial, financial, and monetary relations.

Beyond wielding exceptional military and economic clout, the U.S. benefited from cultural allure and attractive political ideals. As the hub of global telecommunications, American music, films, and television programs commanded wide attention, and from throughout the world, its institutions of higher education beckoned students. A dynamic country that blended personal freedom and entrepreneurial spirit with cutting-edge technology and pioneering scientific research, the U.S. widely was seen as the best model to emulate. When other countries admire your values, see your aims as legitimate, and ultimately want what you want, notes Harvard political scientist Joseph S. Nye, you can win their support without resorting to military threats or offering generous economic inducements. No country at the time was better able to entice and co-opt others than the U.S.

Astonished by the scope and scale of American power, pundits asserted that the U.S. enjoyed unchallenged hegemony in a world where Western liberal democracy had triumphed over rival political philosophies. America seemed invulnerable. On the eve of the 21st century, it not only was stronger than anybody--it was stronger than everybody. The U.S. no longer was a superpower, declared former French foreign minister Hubert Vedrine--it had become a "hyperpower."

What was even more remarkable, America accomplished this by spending only four percent of its GDP on national defense, less than one-third of that spent during World War II. The U.S., in the words of former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, was the "indispensable" nation. "We stand tall," she proclaimed, "and we see further than other countries."

In retrospect, the turn of the millennium was the high-water mark of American preeminence. A series of dramatic events soon began to erode the country's stature. The terrorist attacks of 2001 revealed security vulnerabilities; the 2003 invasion of Iraq squandered the US.'s soft power; and the 2008 financial crisis exposed economic weaknesses. Some observers drew the conclusion that the world was entering a post-American era.

Anxiety over the U.S.'s position in the world is not new. Reports in the mass media during 1950s about the rise of the Soviet Union, and again in the 1980s about an ascending Japan, provoked widespread consternation among U.S. policymakers and the informed public at large. During both turningpoint periods, invectives against those allegedly responsible for the nation's plight filled the airwaves and bookstore shelves. However, fears about America's impending decline proved to be overblown. Neither the Soviet Union nor Japan overtook the U.S.

Is this time different? Unlike two decades ago, when the U.S. towered over all greatpower competitors, America no longer dominates every dimension of international might. Instead, the U.S. is a deeply divided nation: public opinion is polarized; distrust of government pervasive; and acceptance of wild conspiracy theories commonplace. Income inequality is at its highest in almost a century; the social safety net for the poor is weak; and upward mobility is below that registered in most other industrial societies.

Strained by economic and racial tensions, riven by political sectarianism, and enervated by the metastasizing spread of the coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. has turned inward. Bipartisanship, compromise, and sacrifice for the common good seem like relics from yesterday. Politics has ceased to stop at the water's edge. The bitter...