Comparing the Determinants of Worldwide Homicide and Terrorism

• Published date: 01 February 2024
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231190213
• Author: Gary LaFree,Bo Jiang,Yesenia Yanez
• Date: 01 February 2024
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231190213

Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice

2024, Vol. 40(1) 172 –196

© The Author(s) 2023

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DOI: 10.1177/10439862231190213

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Article

Comparing the Determinants

of Worldwide Homicide and

Terrorism

Gary LaFree1, Bo Jiang2,

and Yesenia Yanez1

Abstract

Over the past two decades, the study of terrorism has been increasingly integrated

into mainstream criminology. Like other types of criminal behavior, terrorism can be

divided into etiology (an emphasis on “breaking laws”) and criminal justice (an emphasis

on “making laws” and “reacting toward the breaking of laws”). Moreover, like the

study of crime, the study of terrorism is inherently multidisciplinary. Nevertheless,

terrorism differs from more common forms of crime in fundamental ways: Terrorist

perpetrators, unlike common criminals, rarely see themselves as criminal, often seek

rather than eschew publicity, and often have broader political goals. Despite similarities

and differences, we could identify little prior research that has directly compared the

determinants of terrorism and more ordinary types of crime. In this article, we create

large cross-national datasets on homicides and terrorist attacks and then compare the

effects of a set of common economic, political, and social variables on each. We find a

good deal of similarity in the determinants of the two types of violence. Both homicide

and terrorism are more common in countries with high GDP, high percent urban,

high ethnic fractionalization, and in countries moving toward democratization. Both

homicide and terrorism are low in countries experiencing high globalization. Although

homicides are more common in countries experiencing high levels of inequality and

poverty, neither of these two variables is significantly associated with terrorist attacks.

We discuss the implications of the findings for theory, policy, and future research.

Keywords

homicide, terrorism, globalization, democratization, comparative

1University of Maryland, College Park, USA

2University of Macau, Taipa, Macau SAR China

Corresponding Author:

Gary LaFree, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland, College Park, MD

20742, USA.

Email: glafree@umd.edu

1190213CCJXXX10.1177/10439862231190213Journal of Contemporary Criminal JusticeLaFree et al.

research-article2023

LaFree et al. 173

Although research on political extremism and terrorism from criminology scholars

began to appear in the late 1970s (Hamm, 1998; Kittrie, 1978; Smith, 1994; Turk,

1982), before the coordinated attacks of September 11, 2001, there was relatively little

interest in these topics among criminologists. However, this situation began to change

dramatically in the early 2000s. In fact, in a review of the major developments in

criminology during the first two decades of the 20th century, a growing interest in

research on terrorism and responses to terrorism qualifies as a major development

(Chermak & Gruenewald, 2015; LaFree & Freilich, 2019; Lum & Kennedy, 2012). In

the space of just 20 years, the study of terrorism and political extremism went from a

relatively uncommon niche in criminology to a widely recognized criminological

specialization.

As the study of terrorism and political extremism has become more common as a

research topic in criminology, there have been a growing number of studies that com-

pare the characteristics of terrorism to more ordinary types of crime (for a review, see

LaFree, 2023). Rosenfeld (2004, p. 29) argues that “criminology offers distinctive

insights into the nature of terrorist violence. . ..” However, he also points out that ter-

rorism, unlike more ordinary crime, is not explained by common variables like eco-

nomic deprivation. Black (2004, p. 9) applies his influential “self-help” theory of

crime to argue that like other types of crime, terrorism relies on a form of self-help. He

also notes that unlike other types of crime, terrorism “is unilateral self-help by orga-

nized civilians who covertly inflict mass violence on other civilians.” LaFree and

Dugan (2004) conclude that terrorism resembles other types of crime in some ways

(e.g., both disproportionately connected with young men; both depend on interdisci-

plinary approaches) but is also fundamentally different in other respects (e.g., terrorist

perpetrators often see themselves as altruists and frequently seek public attention

rather than avoid it). The authors also note areas where terrorism resembles some but

not all types of crime. For example, terrorist attacks, like organized crime and crime

committed by gangs, are often part of a sustained program of illegal violence and are

frequently associated with an ongoing organizational structure.

Despite the growing interest in ways in which terrorism is similar to, or different

from, other crimes, very little research has directly compared the determinants of ter-

rorism to more common crimes like homicide. In fact, the only published research we

could identify that directly examines both cross-national rates of terrorism and homi-

cide is a recent study by Kamprad and Liem (2021). Based on an analysis of homicide

and terrorism-related fatalities for 165 countries over a 24-year period, the authors find

strong correlations between a set of common covariates and homicides but relatively

weak correlations between the covariates and terrorism-related fatalities. However, the

Kamprad and Liem article focuses not on differences in the determinants of homicide

and terrorism but rather on whether terrorism-related fatalities are a significant predic-

tor of cross-national homicide rates. Their empirical comparison of homicide and

terrorism-related fatalities is limited to bivariate correlations and is excluded from

their multivariate analysis.

The purpose of this article is to provide what we believe to be the first direct empiri-

cal comparison of the cross-national determinants of homicides and terrorist attacks