Communicating Scientific Uncertainty: A Lawyer's Perspective

• Date: 01 February 2015

2-2015 NEWS & ANALYSIS 45 ELR 10159

Communicating

Scientif‌ic

Uncertainty:

A Lawyer’s

Perspective

by Michael Traynor

Michael Traynor is President Emeritus of the American

Law Institute and Senior Counsel at Cobalt LLP.

Summary

Scientic uncertainty is both inevitable and the source

of communication challenges: science, law, and jour-

nalism each have dierent views of and uses for uncer-

tainty. When dealing with uncertainty on policy

issues such as climate change, these diering perspec-

tives can lead to misunderstanding, controversy, and

gridlock. e author oers his reections on the legal

process and legal ethics as applied to issues of scientic

uncertainty. He concludes that lawyers can strengthen

their ability to serve clients and the public if they

enhance their understanding of scientic uncertainty

and obstacles to communication and learn ways to

communicate more eectively.

I. Introduction

Humans instinctively want certainty. e world, however,

is uncertain. Communicating intelligently is an everyday

challenge. e challenge is daunting when the subject is

technical, when statistical correlation may be confused

with causation, and when there a re asymmetries among

communicating parties. At any time, wide variations in

skills, knowledge, information, experience, cultural iden-

tication, and beliefs may impede eective communica-

tion.1 And over time, even a message that once successfully

reached an audience may lose reliability; for example, peer-

reviewed scientic studies published by respected journals

that cannot be replicated.2

Recogni zing that there w ill be dierent v iews, I aim

simply to provide the perspective of one lawyer who has

attempted to grapple, in practice for many years and

through the America n Law Institute (ALI),3 with various

1. ELI has recently launched a new website on the ethics of communicating

scientic uncertainty, available at http://www.eli.org/scientic-uncertainty

(last visited Jan. 1, 2015).

2. See, e.g., Editorial,  , 496 N-

 398 (2013); Editorial, Error Prone, 487 N 406 (2012); Edito-

rial, , 30 N B 806 (2012); Bruce

Booth, Science Being Studied: Replication, Publication, and Resource Alloca-

tion, F, Nov. 8, 2013 (also discussing the Reproducibility Initiative);

George Johnson, , N.Y. T, Jan. 20,

2014. On recent eorts to improve reproducibility, see, e.g., Editorial, Jour-

, 515 N 7 (2014); Jonathan W. Schooler,

 515 N 9 (2014).

3.

e American Law Institute was founded in 1923 in response to

concerns that the body of American common law was both uncer-

tain and complex.... e ALI addresses uncertainty in the law by

developing restatements of legal subjects for use by courts and law-

yers applying existing law.... e ALI also examines and analyzes

legal areas in need of reform....

A L I, A R 2013-2014, at 4 (2014). e

annual report and other information about the ALI and its projects are

available at http://www.ali.org (last visited Jan. 1, 2015).

       



 

   

  









     

and my daughter, Kathleen Traynor DeRose, a chartered nancial

analyst. I also acknowledge with appreciation the constructive

and perspective-shaping conversations I have had over many years

        

      

       



Copyright © 2015 Environmental Law Institute®, Washington, DC. Reprinted with permission from ELR®, http://www.eli.org, 1-800-433-5120.