The coming crisis: too few skilled workers.

• Position: Q & A Roger Herman - Interview

Roger Herman is a strategic business futurist who concentrates on workplace and workplace trends. He is the co-author of "Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People" (Oakhill Press, December 2002).

Q: You argue that the United State is facing a severe labor shortage. How can this he when currently we have high unemployment and layoffs?

A: Our economy is growing. As we come out of this two-year slowdown, more jobs will, be created. The healthier economy and more employment opportunities will stimulate workers to leave their current jobs. Some will look for different jobs; many wilt be motivated just to escape for their present position.

Q: So this is like the tight labor market we experienced in the late 1990s?

A: Actually, the late 1990s will seem like a practice session compared to what employers will face during this decade. We'll see more movement, less tenure and substantially greater difficulty attracting competent workers.

Q: What's causing this labor shortage to be so much more severe than past situations?

A: There are several factors. First is the widening gap between the number of jobs generated by our growing economy and the supply of skilled workers. By 2010, we will face a shortage of skilled workers of more than 10 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A third factor is a greater permissiveness among workers to pick and choose where they want to work, how they want to work and when they want to work.

Q: It sounds like corporate leaders will he facing some difficult challenges. Are they ready?

A: No, most are not. They don't yet appreciate the severity of the shortage and how it will impact them. Many people running corporations today are more accurately described as "managers" than "leaders." They're too focused on the short-term and not enough on the visionary, long-term perspectives.

Q: Just how vulnerable are employers today?

A: We warn that employers who do not address this...