Columbus forecast 2013.

• Author: Oakes, Michael J.
• Position: Economy and Employment of Metropolitan statistical areas

A year ago, 2012 was looking pretty good for Columbus. In fact, that was the official outlook: Within the context of a slower state and national economy overall, the Columbus economy in 2012 would be "pretty good."

Today, that is a fine description of what happened. Total resident employment in the Columbus MSA (Bartholomew County) is at an all-time high (as of July). You have to go back to the fall of 1999 to find the next closest resident employment numbers.

Total area employment, the number of people working in the Columbus MSA regardless of where they live, is also at an all-time high at 50,400. Since hitting an employment low of 40,500 in July 2009, monthly employment growth has been nearly twice as fast during this recovery as during the previous recovery after the 2001-2002 recession (see Figure 1). Since September 2011, an additional 4,000 people have been put to work--an 8.6 percent increase.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

To many of us, area unemployment still seems a little high at 5.4 percent for September. Surprisingly, however, that is lower than the monthly average of 5.8 percent over the past decade. It is also the lowest unemployment rate of any MSA in the state. It is the third-lowest rate at the county level.

Compare this to other manufacturing-heavy areas. Elkhart, Delaware, Howard and Madison counties are still significantly above both the state and national averages. Madison County, home of Anderson, is looking at 9 percent unemployment.

"Pretty good" holds up on wages too. Weekly wages in the Columbus MSA have consistently stayed above the state average. Despite dipping below an annual average of 109 percent of the state's weekly wages during the slow recovery, it climbed above 113 percent for 2011 (see Figure 2).

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

And finally, outside of the numbers, most residents in the area can see for themselves signs of "pretty good." Retailers are holding up. Construction is up. Home sales and prices are up. It's not yet a boom by any means, but new home and apartment construction is visible. Downtown Columbus almost bustles.

Outlook

What about 2013? Economic activity in Columbus is always dependent on what happens elsewhere. So all of the economic difficulties and uncertainty confronting others are right here in our view too. There are no more important illustrations of that than the late October release and conference call for Cummins Inc.'s third quarter earnings. CEO Tom Linebarger indicated very clearly that...