Columbus forecast 2011.

• Author: Oakes, Michael J.

The impact of the recession is lingering longer in Columbus than most expected. That should be no surprise since it is lingering longer everywhere than most anyone expected.

Beyond the economic data, trends and policy debates, the economy of 2011 has the feel of something waiting just off to the side. New jobs are scarce and unemployment is high--but both are getting a little better. Business is slow and frustrating--but not actually anemic. Nothing is as muscled as we have come to expect following a recession.

In Columbus, good things are happening. It is just that we all seem to be waiting for more economic fuel and thrust.

Take unemployment, for example. At this time last year, 9.6 percent of the workforce in Bartholomew County was unemployed. Now the rate had dropped to 8.5 percent (as of September, not seasonally adjusted). That is a significant improvement. The Indiana unemployment rate overall stood at 9.5 percent last September, dropped a little and rose back again. A year later, it is still 9.5 percent (see Figure 1).

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

The drop in the unemployment rate is even more interesting given that more than 30 percent of the jobs here are in manufacturing (twice the proportion of Indiana overall). In other areas across the state where manufacturing plays a large role in terms of overall employment, those areas' unemployment rates are noticeably higher. In fact, both the Anderson and Kokomo metros are less dependent on manufacturing than Columbus, but their unemployment rates are 10.7 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

Unfortunately, one reason for the drop in the unemployment rate is a declining labor force. This most likely signals movement out of the area as individuals lose hope about their job prospects, and it varies more widely for the Columbus area than for the state overall (see Figure 2). Since the Columbus labor force peaked in July 2008, it has now dropped by nearly 10 percent. Bartholomew County has lost an estimated 4,600 jobs between the years 2008 and 2010--a fall of 8.3 percent.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

While the downward trend in unemployment is welcome, this won't matter much to individuals and families for whom there is still a lot of job pain. And yet the activity off to the side shows much promise.

* Tourism remains strong for Columbus. A strategic focus on amateur sporting events, such as Softball and baseball tournaments, brings thousands of visitors into the area.

* Camp Atterbury continues its physical...