Columbus.

• Author: Marcus, Morton J.
• Position: Economic conditions - Statistical data

The Columbus Metropolitan Statistical Area (metro) includes only Bartholomew County. It is the smallest of the fourteen Indiana-based metros, with employment in September 2006 of 43,800. (1)

Jobs

Manufacturing accounted for 35.2 percent of total nonfarm jobs in Bartholomew County in September 2006. This is far above the 16.4 percent figure for Indiana's fourteen metros and the 9.4 percent level of the nation's 388 metros.

As a manufacturing center, Bartholomew County is more subject to wide swings in its unemployment rate than many other areas. From a recession high of 5 percent in 1991, the percent of the labor force seeking employment declined to 1.6 percent in 1998. As the recession of the early 2000s took hold, the rate rose sharply, ranging from 3.9 percent to 4.5 percent over the past five years (see Figure 1).

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Between September 1996 and 2006, the number of jobs in the Columbus metro grew by 900 or just 90 jobs per year on average. This growth is not sufficient to accommodate the annual graduation of high school seniors in the county. Jobs in the Columbus metro grew by 0.18 percent per year on average between 1996 and 2006. This growth rate ranked 333rd among the 388 metro areas of the nation, which averaged 1.35 percent; Indiana's metro areas averaged 0.67 percent.

As seen in Figure 2, the average annual number of jobs in the Columbus metro peaked at 45,000 in 1999 before hitting a cyclical low point in 2003 of 40,600. We estimate that the 2006 annual average number of jobs will be 43,600. Our forecast for 2007 is an increase of 200 jobs for an annual average of 43,800. Thus, the metro will still be 1,200 jobs below its 1999 peak.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

As another result of its manufacturing intensity, the Columbus metro may outperform the U.S. and Indiana economies in years of general economic expansion. However, it tends to go into slowdowns sooner and may emerge more slowly into growth than other areas. Figure 3 illustrates this behavior over the past decade. When the economy was expanding, the Columbus metro grew faster than the state, but it began to slow more than the state when growth began to lag. Furthermore, Columbus turned negative before the state and remained below the state through 2003; when the economy turned up, Columbus advanced at a faster rate.

In 2006, we estimate that Columbus' increase in jobs will equal the state's increase of 1.1 percent but will lag the state's rise in the year ahead as the...