Columbus.

• Author: Smith, James C.
• Position: Indiana Metro Areas

Candidates for political office all promise more jobs and more prosperity. In the real world, individual politicians don't have much effect on the economy. Trends in economic activity typically take many years to develop, much longer than any politician's term of office.

Trends emerging in Columbus and Bartholomew County, however, raise concerns. The Columbus metro has historically been one of Indiana's more prosperous regions. Per capita personal income (PCPI) was 103 percent of the national average in 1997, fifth highest among Indiana's ninety-two counties (see Figure 1). By 2002, though, per capita income had dropped below the national average (to 98 percent), and the county's ranking in the state was down to ninth. That year was a recession year, of course, but it was a recession all over Indiana. Yet Bartholomew County's ranking within Indiana went down.

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This decline in relative prosperity is reflected in the wages earned in the county. Figure 2 shows quarterly wages per job in Bartholomew County as a percent of the Indiana state average. From its former level of more than 110 percent of the state average, the county drifted down to near 105 percent in the most recent five years. (The spike in 2000 may have been influenced by the Arvin Meritor merger that year). What's even more troubling is that in real terms, after adjusting for inflation, wages per job in the county are no higher than they were in 1998 and 1999.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

Recessions often hit hard in Bartholomew County. Heavy manufacturing has at times accounted for more than 40 percent of Bartholomew County employment, though now that figure has shrunk to 35 percent. But recoveries have been good to the area too. Not this time. The current economic recovery, a weak one nationally, has been even weaker in the Columbus area.

[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]

The level of employment is shown in Figure 3, indexed to the fourth quarter of 1997 in order to make a comparison to total employment in the state. While employment statewide declined during the recession in 2000 and 2001, by the end of 2001 the worst of the drop was over. In Bartholomew County, however, after a brief bounce in 2002, the downward trend in employment continued, widening the gap between the performance of Bartholomew County and that of Indiana as a whole. So far, whatever recovery that has taken place nationally has not boosted employment around Columbus very much.

Bartholomew County businesses have...