Columbus.

• Author: Smith, James C.

No dramatic boom is waiting for Columbus and Bartholomew County in 2003. Business activity next year will look much like it did in 2002, according to forecast data from the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University.

If economic conditions turn out as forecast, Bartholomew County will do reasonably well. A double-dip recession is unlikely, as long as political or international events don't derail the U.S. recovery. But we also won't see the frantic pace of business expansion that took place in the late 1990s.

Bartholomew County's economic activity did not drop as much as in many other Indiana counties during the 2001 recession, so it won't experience as much of a bounce during the economic recovery. Total employment may rise but not very fast.

Throughout the recent recession, the unemployment rate in Bartholomew County almost always stayed below the state and national average (see Figure 1). Since conditions in the area are already better than in much of the state, Columbus and Bartholomew County don't have a gap to make up.

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A continuation of very low interest rates is likely to fuel car sales in Bartholomew County. Low interest rates typically are good for the housing sector too. But many economists believe that much of the demand for home upgrades and refinancings has already been met. A gentle slowing of real estate demand will be offset by the general economic expansion. So the level of real estate activity in Columbus and Bartholomew County should be about even with 2002.

Health Care

One of Bartholomew County's main growth sectors has been health care (see Figure 2), and that should continue strong in 2003. Cost management and streamlining work in favor of regional health care centers--that's what Columbus is becoming. Total employment in the county runs just over 40,000 jobs. The number of jobs in health services is nearly 3,700, which gives the sector close to 10 percent of total county employment.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

Manufacturing

In the coming year, however, Bartholomew County's manufacturing sector faces significant economic uncertainties. While the county's employment base has diversified in recent years, 38 percent of all jobs still come from manufacturing, according to ES-202 reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And most of the major manufacturing companies are not growing in Bartholomew County. Five years ago, there were...