COLORADO FORECAST 2000.

• Author: PETERSON, ERIC

WE'VE SEEN THE FUTURE AND IT WORKS. NOW WE TELL YOU ABOUT IT.

ColoradoBiz surveyed the best minds of a generation, and their thoughts about 1999, 2000 and beyond. Then we added our own brain power and best efforts to fake it, and voila -- this collection of probable and improbable economic scenarios, with a margin of error of +- 100%.

EMPLOYMENT

Economists for the seventh straight year predict a job creation slowdown in Colorado in 2000. While hiring growth rates increased the past five years, growth will slow to about 2.5% in 1999 from 3.6% in 1998. Tucker Hart Adams, US Bank Rocky Mountain region chief economist, expects job growth of 2.2% to 2.3% in 2000. Tom Dunn, Colorado Legislative Council chief economist, cites three underlying factors: "We have a relative lack of labor. Second, Colorado is no longer a low-cost state. Third, much of the country is doing well."

With the rest of the country booming, particularly California, migration to Colorado has slowed and will continue to slow. "California is still the 900-pound gorilla and what happens there impacts the rest of the Western states," says Salt Lake City-based economist Jeff Thredgold.

Labor shortages will grow. "The labor crunch is one of the most constraining factors" slowing Colorado's growth, notes Patricia Silverstein, consultant and Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce chief economist.

ColoradoBiz Prediction

Secretary of Technology of the Governor's Office of Innovation & Technology Marc Holtzman, at a World Trade Center Denver luncheon, receives the e-mail address of a programmer in Mumbai (formerly Bombay) named Rajiv, who fixes him up with all the high-tech staffing the state needs. End of problem.

Worst Case

Following the lead of KN Energy, TCI, MediaOne, Jones Intercable and others, the state's merger-acquisition trend accelerates. New Colorado corporate giants Where It At (the merger of AT&T, ITT Industries and Wherehouse Music stores) and AmJohnAm (a conglomeration of Amoco, Amway and Johns Manville Corp.) decide to move their workers out of Colorado to where the action is, Mumbai (formerly Bombay).

Meantime, a generation of entrepreneurs emerges: 10% of Colorado graduating seniors join the same garage band; 15% sell mousepads over the Internet; 5% become forest rangers; the remaining 70% live with their parents.

INCOME

Wages in Colorado will rise about 4% this year. "Wages are going up now faster than the rate of inflation," says Silverstein. Inflation, roughly 3% in...