A Close Examination of the 2016 Dallas and Baton Rouge Police Killers: Identifying Potential Risk Factors and Influences for Copycat Violence

• Author: Adam Lankford
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10575677211061257
• Published date: 01 March 2023
• Date: 01 March 2023

A Close Examination of the

2016 Dallas and Baton Rouge

Police Killers: Identifying

Potential Risk Factors and

Influences for Copycat Violence

Adam Lankford

Abstract

Two of the worst targeted attacks on American police officers in recent history occurred within

eleven days of each other. Although it seems clear their proximity was not merely attributable

to chance, the connection between these incidents, and the implications for understanding copycat

violence, have never been fully explored. This study analyzes the perpetrators of these attacks from

a“thresholds of violence”perspective, which suggests the first actor in a sequence is more likely to

be disturbed and violence prone, while subsequent actors are typically less disturbed but more

socially influenced. Results suggest the thresholds model has both merits and limits. The first

attacker did have more psychological problems and violence in his past, and the second did seem

more influenced by violent role models. However, there were also many similarities between

them, and both attacked due to a combination of internal and external factors. If this study’sfindings

are generalizable, higher risks of becoming a copycat offender may exist for individuals who have (1)

personal similarities with previous attackers, (2) a history of psychological problems, (3) a history of

interest in violent actors, and (4) recent escalation in their online behavior. Recommendations are

offered for future research, offender profiling, and violence prevention.

Keywords

police killers, police shootings, mass shootings, copycat violence, offender profiling

Introduction

On July 7, 2016, Micah Xavier Johnson shot 12 police officers in Dallas, Texas, killing five and

wounding seven others. On July 17, 2016, Gavin Long shot six police officers in Baton Rouge,

Louisiana, killing three and wounding three others. These incidents constitute two of the worst

The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA

Corresponding Author:

Adam Lankford, Department of Criminology & Criminal Justice, The University of Alabama, P.O. Box 870320, Tuscaloosa,

AL 35487, USA.

Email: Adam.Lankford@ua.edu

Original Article

International Criminal Justice Review

2023, Vol. 33(1) 5-22

© 2021 Georgia State University

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/10575677211061257

journals.sagepub.com/home/icj

targeted attacks on police officers in the United States, but the connection between them, and the

implications for understanding copycat violence, have never been fully explored.

It seems highly unlikely that the proximity of these attacks, which occurred within eleven days of

each other, is attributable to chance. Although there have been other cases in which multiple police

officers were killed in a single incident, violence of this type is extraordinarily rare. Data from the

Federal Bureau of Investigation (2019) indicate that the odds of a U.S. law enforcement officer

being feloniously killed in a given year are approximately 1 in 16,000, and the vast majority of

those incidents do not involve attempts at mass murder.

1

It also seems unlikely that Johnson’s and Long’s attacks are fully explained by a shared precip-

itating cause: the police shootings of Alton Sterling and Philando Castile earlier that month. Itis true

that both perpetrators considered those shootings unjust and both cited them as a reason for attacking

(Fernandez et al., 2016; State of Louisiana, 2017). However, if police shootings were extremely rare

in the United States, it might be easier to believe they caused this extremely rare outcome (two tar-

geted attacks in which multiple police officers were killed). Unfortunately, approximately 1,000

civilians are shot and killed by police in the United States each year (Washington Post, 2020),

and controversial cases that provoke public outrage have been all too common. This suggests

there is not a simple cause-and-effect relationship between police shootings of civilians and targeted

attacks on police that would fully explain Johnson’s and Long’s behavior.

A better explanation for the proximity of these attacks may be that the former inspired the latter. If

so, Johnson was the role model and Long was the copycat. This is consistent with research showing

that mass murder, mass shootings, and school shootings sometimes have a copycat element, whereby

susceptible individuals who have been influenced by previous attackers eventually commit an attack

of their own (Follman, 2019; Helfgott, 2015; Langman, 2018; Lankford & Madfis, 2018). It also fits

evidence from Long’s (2016) social media posts that shows he was aware of Johnson’s recent attack

and considered it morally justified.

To analyze the factors that led to Johnson’s and Long’s behavior—including the copycat element

—this study will closely examine both perpetrators’lives. Data from primary source documents, gov-

ernment reports, and other reliable sources will be used to make biographical comparisons, identify

confirmed influences on each attacker, and examine other relevant information. Johnson and Long

will be analyzed from a “thresholds of violence”perspective, which makes predictions about how

actors in a behavioral sequence differ from each other.

Thresholds of Violence

Research on copycat violence and contagion effects has primarily focused on a few key issues. For

instance, scholars have established that high profile perpetrators can inspire and influence subsequent

perpetrators (Follman, 2019; Helfgott, 2015; Langman, 2018); that high profile incidents may

increase the likelihood of subsequent incidents (Kissner, 2016; Towers et al., 2015); and that outsized

media coverage of perpetrators makes these effects more likely (Lankford & Madfis, 2018; Meindl &

Ivy, 2018; Sidhu, 2017).

However, very little attention has been paid to how much violent role models and copycats resem-

ble each other. Even if the behavior itself was copied, that does not clarify whether the role model and

copycat were similar in other ways, or whether both appear likely to have attacked if their sequence

had been reversed. In general, research on less extreme imitation (such as rudeness, smoking,

binge-eating, and jaywalking) suggests that people are more likely to copy actors of the same sex

and age (Meindl & Ivy, 2018). In addition, Langman (2018) cites several examples of mass shooters

who said they were personally similar to the attackers who inspired their crimes. But it is unknown

whether violent role models and copycats differ in other important ways, such as their propensity for

violence.

6International Criminal Justice Review 33(1)