Climate variability and its impacts on agriculture production and future prediction using autoregressive integrated moving average method (ARIMA)

• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2016
• Date: 01 May 2020
• Author: Bushra Praveen,Pritee Sharma
• Published date: 01 May 2020

ACADEMIC PAPER

Climate variability and its impacts on agriculture production

and future prediction using autoregressive integrated moving

average method (ARIMA)

Bushra Praveen | Pritee Sharma

School of Humanities and Social Sciences,

Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Indore,

India

Correspondence

Bushra Praveen, School of Humanities and

Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology

Indore, Simrol, Indore 453552, India.

Email: bushraparvn@gmail.com

This study assesses the impacts of climate variation on land productivity for

major Indian food and non-food grain crops. We collected data for 50 years from

(1967–2016) with 15 crops across India. To estimate the variation of agriculture

production for each crop by different variables, for instance, rainfall and tempera-

ture estimation and future prediction for 20 years, that is, until 2036. Our results

specify that land productivity drops with a rise in annual mean temperature in

most of the crops. The adverse impact of climate variation on agricultural produc-

tion recommends food security risk to minor and marginal agricultural families,

badly affected by climatic variations. Results show that a rise in temperature

would reduce agricultural productivity and assessed sensitivity of Indian agricul-

ture to climate change. We did forecasting using the autoregressive integrated

moving average model for 20 years. It shows that as temperature and rainfall

upturns in the future, production of some crops, such as gram, sesamum (til),

jowar, groundnut, sugarcane, and bajra, will also increase. Some crops are climate

sensitive, such as arhar, wheat, rice, cotton, and tea. As temperature increases,

the production of these crops slightly increase or decrease.

1|INTRODUCTION

Climate change is most dangerous natural hazard that adversely

affected agriculture production and very important in agriculture

studies. Variation in climate is not a new miracle on the ground

stated by Kumar and Gautam (2014) and Praveen and Sharma

(2019). The variation in temperature of the ground and in atmo-

sphere, variability in rainfall, deteriorating groundwater, flooding as

a result of surplus rainfall, drought, loss of soil, melting of glacier

caused by rising sea level, windstorm, wind speed, rainstorm, hail,

seismic activity and mudslide and so on are entirely direct indica-

tions of climate change. Although it is natural in some instances,

but anthropogenic actions are similarly accountable for it. Here are

numerous instances from corner to corner countries where an

intensification in the possibilities of climate change caused by an

explosion of population, expansion of urbanization, advanced indus-

trial development, usage of new machinery and technology, innova-

tion, advanced economic enlargement, transportation, construction

of buildings, diminishing of forest areas, and so on and so forth is

detected (Ahmad, Alam, & Haseen, 2011). In high-latitude, devel-

oped countries where climate change has a positive impact on agri-

culture but in developing countries mostly situated in lower

latitudes go through a negative crop production. Conversely, poor

or low-income countries are most vulnerable compared with high-

income or rich nations. There are various causes that accelerate

the vulnerabilities of emerging nations, such as little attention to

technological advancement, shortage of resources to alleviate the

Abbreviation: ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average.

Received: 24 April 2019 Accepted: 2 September 2019

DOI: 10.1002/pa.2016

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