Climate Change: Putting the "Good News" in Context.

• Position: Brief Article

In mid-June, the U.S. Global Change Research Program posted for public comment a draft assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the United States. Prepared by a team of experts from government, the private sector, and academia, the report is the most detailed analysis to date of global warming's possible consequences for the nation during the next 100 years. The study is also noteworthy for the extent to which it draws on the input of hundreds of non-scientists, who identified issues of concern through dozens of regional meetings.

The draft report includes several interesting findings. Average temperatures are projected to increase by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit (3 to 6 degrees Celsius)--well above the global mean. Heavy and extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent, though some regions will become drier. Some highly vulnerable ecosystems, including Rocky Mountain alpine meadows and barrier islands, may disappear entirely, while others, such as Southeastern forests, may witness major species shifts or break-ups. And climate change is expected to magnify the effects of existing human stresses on the environment, exacerbating air and water pollution and habitat destruction, for example. This could cause potentially irreversible impacts to sensitive systems such as coral reefs.

One of the findings that the New York Times and other newspapers highlighted was that U.S. crop...