Climate Change and its impacts on Indian agriculture: An Econometric analysis

• Date: 01 February 2020
• Author: Bushra Praveen,Pritee Sharma
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/pa.1972
• Published date: 01 February 2020

ACADEMIC PAPER

Climate Change and its impacts on Indian agriculture: An

Econometric analysis

Bushra Praveen |Pritee Sharma

School of Humanities and Social Science,

Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Simrol,

India

Correspondence

Bushra Praveen, School of Humanities and

Social Science, Indian Institute of Technology

Indore, Simrol, 453552, India.

Email: bushraparvn@gmail.com

This study assessedthe climate change impacts on land productivity for major food and

nonfoodgrain crops in India. We compileddata for 50 years (1967–2016)using 15 crops

across Indiato estimate the variationof agriculture productionfor each crop by different

variables such as temperature and rainfall estimation. Our results indicate that land

productivity decreases with an increase in annual average temperature in most of the

crops. The adverse impact of climate change on agricultural production indicates food

security threat to small and marginal farming households and adversely affected due

to climaticfluctuations. Resultsshow that a rise in temperaturewould reduce agricultural

productivity and assessed sensitivity of Indianagriculture to climate change.

1|INTRODUCTION

Climate change is not a new phenomenon in the world (Kumar &

Gautam, 2014; Kumar & Sharma, 2013). The rise in temperature of

the earth surface and in atmosphere, variation in rainfall, declining

groundwater, flooding due to high rainfall, drought, soil erosion, heavy

wind, rising sea level due to melting of glacier, cyclone, wind speed,

hail storm, fog, earthquake and landslide etc. are all the clear evidence

of climate change phenomenon. Although it is a natural process in

some cases, human activities are also responsible for this. There are

many examples across countries where an increase in the possibilities

of climate change due to growing population, rapid urbanization,

higher industrialization, use of modern technology, innovation, higher

economic development, transport, building construction, reduction in

forest area etc. is observed (Ahmad, Dastgir, & Haseen, 2011). High

latitude and higher‐income countries climate change have a positive

impact on agricultural production or crop yield, and on the other hand,

lower‐latitude and lower‐income countries experience a negative

effect on agricultural production. Conversely, developing countries

are most vulnerable compared with developed countries. There are

reasons for developing countries which make them vulnerable such

as lack of technologyical development and resourses to mitigate the

adverse effect of climate change on agriculture, and due to their

greater dependence on agriculture for the livelihood of large

populations (Nath & Behera, 2011), this would increase the severity

of disparities in cereal yields between developed and developing

countries (Fischer, Shah, Tubiello, & Velhuizen, 2005).

1.1 |Impact of climate change

Climate and its variability impact all sectors of the economy in several

ways like an abnormality in rainfall results in severity and frequency of

floods. Any increment in maximum temperature may increase mean

sea levels, and it would affect large populations in peninsular and

coastal areas. It may increase 15% to 40% rainfall there and raise the

annual mean temperature by 3° to 6°. Climate change adversely affects

the food security in all countries through agriculture production.

It affects food security is in four dimensions, food availability, food

accessibility, food utilization, and food system stability. It will also have

an impact on human health, livelihood assets, and food production

and distribution channels (FAO, 2008).

1.2 |Empirical review

In India, many studies have given empirical evidence that

climate change has caused a decline in the agricultural productivity.

Numerous studies examined the economic impact of climate change

on agriculture, and few studies included food security with agriculture

productivity. Kumar and Parikh (2001a) shown for rice and wheat crop

that projected large‐scale changes in the climate would lead to

significant reductions in their crop yields, which in turn would

adversely affect agricultural production by 2060 and may affect the

food security of more than one billion people in India.

In brief, wheat, barley, sorghum, arhar, and maize food grain crops

get negatively affected due to climate sensitivity, these all are the

Received: 3 April 2019 Accepted: 24 April 2019

DOI: 10.1002/pa.1972

J Public Affairs. 2020;20:e1972.

https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.1972

© 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/pa 1of6