Climate change action in Arizona.

• Author: Owens, Steve

1. BACKGROUND II. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN ARIZONA III. EXECUTIVE ORDER 2005-02 AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY GROUP IV. EXECUTIVE ORDER 2006-13 V. ARIZONA'S CLEAN CAR GHG STANDARDS VI. ARIZONA'S RENEWABLE ENERGY STANDARD VII. THE WESTERN CLIMATE INITIATIVE VIII. OTHER REGIONAL EFFORTS A. Arizona-Sonora Climate Change Initiative B. Southwest Climate Change Initiative C. The Climate Registry IX. OTHER ARIZONA EFFORTS A. Executive Order 2005-05 B. Smart Growth & the Growth Scorecard X. CONCLUSION I. BACKGROUND

   In the absence of meaningful federal action, it has been up to the states to show leadership on this critical issue. And that is exactly what we have done.

   Governor Janet Napolitano (1)

   Arizona is one of the newest and fastest growing states in the country. Over the last twenty years, Arizona's population has nearly doubled. (2) During that same time, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Arizona have skyrocketed, due substantially to the state's population growth.

   An inventory and forecast of Arizona's GHG emissions prepared in 2005 for the Arizona Climate Change Advisory Group (CCAG) at the direction of then-Governor Janet Napolitano found that, between 1990 and 2005, Arizona's net GHG emissions increased by nearly 56 percent, from an estimated 59.3 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MMtCO2e) to an estimated 92.6 MMtCO2e. (3) Two sectors directly related to Arizona's rapid population growth--transportation and electricity--accounted for nearly 80 percent of Arizona's total GHG emissions in 2005. (4) Both sectors are growing at relatively high rates as Arizona's population grows.

   Indeed, with Arizona's population expected to continue to grow at a vigorous pace in the decades ahead, (5) the 2005 inventory and forecast projected that Arizona's GHG emissions would increase 148 percent over 1990 levels by 2020 if steps are not taken to reduce the emissions. (6)

   Because of Arizona's reliance on gasoline-fueled automobiles and demand for electricity produced by coal-fired power plants, Arizona's GHG emissions increased at a rate more than twice the national average during 1990-2005. (7) Further, Arizona's projected 148 percent growth-rate between 1990 and 2020 is more than three times the projected national average over the same period. (8) Arizona's forecasted GHG increase is the highest known projected emissions growth rate in the country. (9)

   On the other hand, because of Arizona's mild winters and relative absence of manufacturing and heavy industry, the state's per capita GHG emissions (the total level of statewide emissions divided by state population) is significantly less than the national average: 14 MtCO2e versus 22 MtCO2e. (10) Moreover, while the percentage of GHG emissions from electricity production in Arizona is greater than the national average, Arizona gets slightly less electricity from coal and more from low-GHG-emitting sources, such as nuclear power, hydroelectric power and renewable energy (such as solar and biomass). (11)

   While Arizona's high emissions growth rate presents challenges, it also provides major opportunities. Because nearly 80 percent of Arizona's GHG emissions are directly related to energy and transportation, Arizona can significantly reduce its GHG emissions by focusing on those sectors. Improved energy efficiency, increased use of renewable energy sources, building new infrastructure "right," and increased use of cleaner transportation modes, technologies and fuels are key elements in accomplishing these reductions. They are also all essential ingredients of a new, greener economy toward which the state must move in any event. (12)

2. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN ARIZONA

   It is critical that Arizona take action to reduce its GHG emissions because the scientific evidence is clear that Arizona and the Southwest will be especially hard-hit by the impacts of climate change in the future. Indeed, as Governor Napolitano stated in testimony before the U.S. House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, Arizona already is feeling the effects of a hotter, drier climate and changing weather patterns. The governor noted that "Arizona and other western states are suffering from prolonged drought, decreased snowfall, increased and earlier snowmelt, and more severe and devastating forest and rangeland fires as a result of recent climate changes." (13)

   As the Arizona Climate Change Action Plan noted, over the past 50 years, the climate in the western United States has warmed, on average, by 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit. Even more significant increases are predicted in the coming decades. (14)

   A warmer climate could have drastic effects on the state's water supply. Increased evaporation in Arizona's reservoirs and water bodies means less water for consumption, irrigation, hydropower production, public and industrial supply, fish and wildlife habitat, and recreation. (15) Less snowfall and more rain in the winter coupled with an earlier snowmelt in Arizona's mountains could contribute to greater winter and spring flooding. Less spring and summer aquifer recharge could result in even greater declines in groundwater supplies. (16)

   Hotter, drier temperatures also will exacerbate forest and wildfires in Arizona due to greater insect infestations and decreased moisture. Already, the two worst fires in Arizona history have occurred in this decade. (17)

   Warmer temperatures could also worsen Arizona's air pollution problems. During the winter of 2005-2006, the Phoenix metropolitan area suffered a record-breaking 143 consecutive days without measurable precipitation, which contributed to unprecedented levels of particulate matter (PM10) pollution in the area. (18) Increased temperatures also could contribute to increased ozone concentrations in the Phoenix metropolitan area, especially during the summer months. (19)

3. EXECUTIVE ORDER 2005-02 AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY GROUP

   On February 2, 2005, Governor Janet Napolitano signed Executive Order 2005-02 establishing Arizona's Climate Change Advisory Group (CCAG). (20) Appointed by the Governor, the CCAG was a diverse group of thirty-five stakeholders with broad perspectives and expertise about climate change. Governor Napolitano directed the CCAG to prepare an inventory and forecast of Arizona's GHG emissions (discussed above) and develop a Climate Change Action Plan with recommendations for reducing GHG emissions in Arizona under the coordination of the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ). (21)

   In establishing the CCAG, the governor recognized that "scientific consensus has developed that increasing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and other greenhouse gases released to the atmosphere are affecting the Earth's climate." (22) The Order noted that the Western Governors Association, a bipartisan group of governors in the Western United States, had recognized that "[t]he failure to take appropriate actions to address global climate change risks economic, environmental and societal damage." (23)

   The Order also emphasized that "Arizona and other Western States have particular concerns about the impacts of climate change and climate variability on the environment, including the potential for prolonged drought, severe forest fires, warmer temperatures, increased snowmelt, reduced snow pack and other effects." The Order went on to declare that "actions to reduce GHG emissions, including increasing energy efficiency, conserving natural resources and developing renewable energy sources, may have multiple benefits including economic development, job creation, cost savings, and improved air quality." (24)

   The CCAG met six times between July 2005 and June 2006. In addition to the meetings of the full CCAG, five sector-based technical work groups--essentially subcommittees of the CCAG--met a total of forty times via teleconference during this time. (25)

   In August 2006, the CCAG produced its Climate Change Action Plan with forty-nine policy options for reducing GHG emissions in Arizona. Forty-five of the policy options were adopted unanimously by the CCAG, two received a supermajority of support, and two received a majority of support. (26)

   The forty-nine policy options presented a wide range of actions that Arizona could take to reduce its GHG emissions significantly. The options fell within five different categories each covered by one of the five technical work groups: residential, commercial and industrial (RCI); energy supply (ES); transportation and land use (TLU); agriculture and forestry (AF); and cross-cutting issues (CC). (27) The options ran the gamut from major broad-based initiatives to more narrowly focused efforts. Some of the most significant options are listed below (along with their identifying numbers).

   Residential, Commercial, and Industrial:

   * Implement enhanced appliance efficiency standards (RCI-3).

   * Adopt building standards, codes and design incentives for energy efficiency and smart growth (RCI-4 & RCI-5).

   * Encourage distributed generation of renewable energy and combined heat and power (RCI-6 & RCI-7).

   * Implement electricity pricing strategies that support energy conservation (RCI-8).

   Energy Supply:

   * Increase the environmental portfolio standard (ES-1).

   * Explore a GHG cap and trade program (ES-4).

   * Reduce barriers to renewables and distributed generation of clean energy (ES-9).

   * Implement net metering and advanced metering for energy consumption (ES-10).

   Transportation and Land Use:

   * Adopt the clean car program (TLU-1).

   * Implement policies to promote smart growth planning, infill, increased density, and transit-oriented and pedestrian-friendly development...