City-Level Violent Crime Trends and Racial-Ethnic Income Inequality

• Published date: 01 February 2024
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231189986
• Author: Kelsey Cundiff
• Date: 01 February 2024

https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231189986

Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice

2024, Vol. 40(1) 48 –64

© The Author(s) 2023

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DOI: 10.1177/10439862231189986

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Article

City-Level Violent Crime

Trends and Racial-Ethnic

Income Inequality

Kelsey Cundiff1

Abstract

Within the crime trends literature, there exist several notable studies that have

examined the linkages between various economic measures and trends in violent

and property crime. This research expands on that literature by examining whether

and to what extent racial income gaps are related to changes in city-level crime.

Pulling together data from the Uniform Crime Report, U.S. Census, and American

Community Survey, this project focuses on homicide and violent crime trends of

73 cities from 2006 to 2020 and changes in city-level racial-ethnic income gaps.

This study employs a series of multilevel longitudinal models to measure whether

changes in this income gap, whether widening or constricting, are related to changes

in rates of violent crime and homicide both within and between cities. Results find

that changes in any of the racial-ethnic income gaps tested are not related to trends

in violent crime and homicide within or between cities. However, the inclusion of the

White-Hispanic income gap and total income gap explained sizable portions of the

between-city and within-city rates of violence and homicide.

Keywords

violent crime, income inequality, race and ethnicity

Introduction

Many prior studies have found evidence linking economic conditions to crime rates on

a variety of levels (i.e., city, county, and country) and across many different periods of

time (Lauritsen & Heimer, 2010; Rosenfeld, 2009; Rosenfeld & Fornango, 2007;

1University of Missouri–St. Louis, USA

Corresponding Author:

Kelsey Cundiff, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri–St. Louis, St.

Louis, MO 63121, USA.

Email: kcundiff@umsl.edu

1189986CCJXXX10.1177/10439862231189986Journal of Contemporary Criminal JusticeCundi

research-article2023

Cundiff 49

Rosenfeld & Messner, 2009). Research has examined measures of income inequality,

poverty, consumer sentiment, and other measures of socioeconomic status, generally

finding evidence of relationships between these measures and levels of crime (Pratt &

Cullen, 2005). However, the prior research has largely used measures that look at the

populations of the geographic unit of analysis as a whole. But when examining eco-

nomic measures especially, overarching measures mask any potential nuance in these

measures between individuals. There are well-documented wealth gaps across differ-

ent demographic characteristics, but race and ethnicity are especially glaring.

In the United States specifically, the wealth gap between White and Black individu-

als is well documented (Shapiro et al., 2013). Scholars point to several contributing

factors to the persistent gaps in wealth, such as income, assets, home ownership, and

generational wealth (Conley, 2001; Shapiro et al., 2013). Within criminological

research, several studies have found that criminal justice contact and disparate sen-

tence lengths and associated fines have also added to this wealth gap (Sykes & Maroto,

2016). However, research has not yet examined whether the gap itself can contribute

to offending behaviors.

Research on income inequality and its relationship to different types of crime has

been mixed. While the relationship between socioeconomic status and crime has been

repeatedly established (Pratt & Cullen, 2005), the underlying mechanisms driving this

relationship are not as settled. Some work argues that it is instead levels of economic

inequality, rather than measures of absolute poverty, that are most important, drawing

on theory related to relative deprivation and anomie (Ouimet, 2012; Savolainen, 2000).

Other work has found that measures of levels of poverty (i.e., poverty indices and infant

mortality rate) are more strongly linked to rates of crime than indicators of economic

inequality (Pare & Felson, 2014; Pridemore, 2008, 2011). Regardless of the argument,

race and/or ethnicity is most commonly included only as a control variable in this prior

work and rarely pulled out to be examined in the main part of the analysis.

This study seeks to incorporate race, ethnicity, and economic indicators together to

explain changing trends in city-level violent crime. Specifically, this study examines

whether changes in the size of racial-ethnic income gaps over time are associated with

changing homicide and violent crime rates within a city. In addition, this study assesses

whether differences across cities in racial-ethnic income gaps can explain between-

city differences in rates of violent crime and homicide. While most of the prior research

in racial income inequality focuses on Black-White comparisons, this study incorpo-

rates comparisons with Hispanic and Asian populations as well. The article first details

the prior research and theory related to racial-ethnic income gaps and racial-ethnic

wealth gaps more broadly and the relationship between economic factors and crime.

Then, the analysis and results are presented and discussed.

Background

Prior research on racial-ethnic wealth gaps within the context of the United States has

primarily focused on the gap between Black and White individuals. This Black–White

gap has increased over time, with one study showing a near tripling of the wealth gap