Cities on Stilts: The Myth of Large-Scale Climate Adaptation and the Limits of Sustainability
| Author | Patrick Parenteau |
| Pages | 101-123 |
101
Chapter 7:
Cities on Stilts: The Myth of
Large-Scale Climate Adaptation
and the Limits of Sustainability
Patr ick Pa rent eau
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
the goal of climate policy is to “avoid the unmanageable and mana ge
the unavoidable.”1 e key to avoiding the unmanageable is mitiga-
tion, de ned as: “An anthropogenic intervention to reduce t he sources or
enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.”2 Managing the unavoidable means
adaptation, dened as: “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response
to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their eects, which moderates harm
or exploits benecial opportunities.”3 Mitigation and adaptation are comple-
mentary strategies that can—at least in theory—work in harmony. However,
nding the optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation is problematic. Mitiga-
tion and adaptation work at di erent spatial and time sca les. Mitigation is
global and long term while adaptation is local a nd shorter term. ose who
will suer the most from climate change, and are the least responsible for
the emissions that cause it, are the ones who lack the nancial and technica l
capacity to adapt. ey are also the ones most in need of nancial and techni-
cal assistance to grow carbon-free economies.
But there is a larger question: At what point does climate disruption
become so “unma nageable” that adaptation is no longer a viable option for
maintaining human civilizations? Put dierently, at what point do we over-
shoot sustainable limits of the planet and condemn future generations to, as
one publication put it, a “hellish futu re?”4 ere are no simple ans wers. To
hazard a guess one must rst consider several factors: (1) the success or fail-
1. I P C C (IPCC), C C 2007: S
R, ch. 4 (2007), available at http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/main.html.
2. IPCC, C C 2007: W G II: I, A V
(2007), available at http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch18s18-1-2.html.
3. Id.
4. Damian Carrington, Climate Change Scientists Warn of 4C Global Temperature Rise, G, Nov.
28, 2010.
102 Rethinking Sustainability
ure of mitigation policies so far; (2) the cumulative loading of ca rbon in the
atmosphere; (3) the sensitivity of the climate system; (4) the eects of mul-
tiple positive feedback loops and the possibility of passing tipping points that
would trigger runaway climate change; (5) the ability of social and political
institutions to anticipate and respond to consequences such a s sea-level rise,
extreme weather, food shortages, displaced populations, conicts over water
and other resources; and (6) the variability of impacts in dierent parts of
the globe. e simple fact is that we have entered an era unknown in human
history—dubbed t he “Anthropocene” by climatologist Paul Cr utzen.5 Mea-
suring any of these factors with any degree of certainty is extremely dif-
cult, which leaves humanity relying instead on reasonable projections and
best guesses. We know that the observable, measurable eects of a relatively
slight increase (0.8°C, 1.4°F) in average global temperatures are consider-
ably greater than what the IPCC projected in its Fourth Assessment.6 For
example, sea levels are rising 60% faster than projected.7 A recent study from
the Potsdam Institute concludes that sea levels rise two meters (6.6 feet) for
every +1°C change. Everywhere one looks it seems climate change is acceler-
ating: e A rctic is melting so fast that some scenarios predict it will be ice
free in the summer by mid-century8; Antarctica is breaking apart and calving
glaciers one-fourth the size of Rhode Island9; Greenland experienced a 97%
5. Paul Crutzen is one of the three chemists who shared the 1995 Nobel Prize for discovering the ef-
fects of ozone-depleting compounds. In a paper published in 2000, Crutzen and Eugene Stoermer,
a professor at the University of Michigan, noted that humans now dominate a number of Earth’s
basic processes such as the nitrogen and carbon cycles. Paul J. Crutzen & Eugene F. Stoermer, e
“Anthropocene,” 41 G C N. 17 (2000), available at http://www.igbp.net/download/1
8.316f18321323470177580001401/1376383088452/NL41.pdf. Two years later, Crutzen published a
paper in Nature in which he wrote: “e Anthropocene could be said to have started in the latter part
of the eighteenth century, when analyses of air trapped in polar ice showed the beginning of growing
global concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane.” Paul J. Crutzen, Geology of Mankind, 415
N 23 (2002). e Anthropocene Working Group of the International Commission on Stratigra-
phy has been formed to consider whether a new epoch should be ocially designated, and if so, how.
Elizabeth Kolbert, e Anthropocene Debate: Marking Humanity’s Impact, Y E' 360, May 10,
2010, http://e360.yale.edu/feature/the_anthropocene_debate__marking_humanitys_impact/2274/.
6. Glenn Cherer, IPCC Predictions: en Versus Now, D C—C C, Dec. 11,
2012, http://www.climatecentral.org/news/ipcc- predictions-then-versus-now-15340; Ben Block,
Climate Change Outpaces Predictions, W I., http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5990
(last visited July 19, 2013).
7. Stefan Rahmstorf et al., Comparing Climate Projections to Observations up to 2011, 7 E. R.
L 044035 at 3 (2012), available at http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044035/pdf/1748-
9326_7_4_044035.pdf.
8. IPCC W G I, C C 2013: T P S B 5 (2014), available
at http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf.
9. George Hale, Letter, Antarctic Glacier Calves Iceberg One-Fourth Size of Rhode Island, NASA N (July
11, 2013), http://www.nasa.gov/content/antarctic-glacier-calves-iceberg-one-fourth-size-of-rhode-is-
land/; M.A. Depoorter et al., Calving Fluxes and Basal Melt Rates of Antarctic Ice Shelves, 502 N
89 (2013), available at http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature12567.html.
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