Cities in the 21st Century: The Forces of Change.

• Author: Kemp, Roger L.
• Position: Six areas of change affecting municipal government

Demographic and economic trends are shaping the way that cities will do business in the future. In this article, the author highlights the trends that he believes will have the greatest impact on cities in the coming years.

Dynamic changes are taking place in society that will have a profound impact on our cities in the future. Evolving societal conditions and public perceptions have created trends that require communities to change in order to meet the public's expectation for effective and equitable governance. The milestone changes examined in this article are based upon established and predictable trends. They will have a measurable impact on municipalities across the nation during the coming years. Adapting to these changes will test the abilities of public officials as they strive to represent the citizens they serve.

The Forces of Change

The changes taking place in society will have a profound impact on how our cities are governed and managed. How public officials adapt to these evolving conditions will directly reflect on their ability to successfully adapt their municipal institutions in the future.

The traditional municipal planning practices of the past were designed during periods of steady growth and routine change. They are now being questioned and replaced by more modern and relevant planning practices. The practice of strategic planning, the development of alternative scenarios, and the use of issuesmanagement techniques, long common in the private sector, have been at the forefront of this planning trend. The traditional planning practices of the past, characterized by merely projecting previous trends into the future, will increasingly be found to be lacking in their reliability and credibility.

The magnitude and momentum of societal changes will have a direct influence on public services during the coming years, as well as how they are financed, and the extent to which they meet the needs of citizens. By purposely adapting local democratic institutions to citizen expectations, and by productively planning for the future of municipal organizations, public officials will be able to create a smooth transition for their local governments in future years. If this does not happen, city halls throughout America will increasingly become vocal forums for debating citizen demands for greater government accountability, citizen responsiveness, and organizational change.

To illustrate the extent of these changing societal trends, and to make them easier to understand, they are presented using six categories. They include readily predictable demographic shifts, major economic factors, escalating environmental concerns, evolving political considerations, state-of-the-art technological trends, and changing urban patterns and shapes. The dramatic changes in these areas, and how they impact our local governments, are examined below.

Demographic Shifts

One of the greatest challenges American governments will face is adapting to the changing face of Americans. The American population is aging, families are growing smaller, and immigrant populations are gaining political power. All of these changes demand that government keep pace.

A growing number of senior citizens will, because of their increasing lifespans and available leisure time, become more politically active. These senior citizens will demand more specialized public services, such as those provided by recreational, cultural, library health, and social programs. Large-print books, health clinics, nutrition workshops, and exercise classes, are but a few examples of these types of services.

At the same time, Hispanics will have a growing political...