Chronic Juvenile Offenders: Exploring Risk Factor Models of Recidivism

• DOI: 10.1177/1541204018770517
• Author: W. Alex Edmonds,David Detullio,Tom D. Kennedy,Danielle H. Millen
• Date: 01 April 2019
• Published date: 01 April 2019
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Chronic Juvenile Offenders:

Exploring Risk Factor Models

of Recidivism

Tom D. Kennedy

1

, W. Alex Edmonds

2

,

Danielle H. Millen

1

, and David Detullio

1

Abstract

This study examined the relationship between known risk factors for youthful offenders and rates

of recidivism using Poisson regression models. The sample consisted of 564 male and female

juvenile offenders referred to the Juvenile Court Assessment Center (JCAC) by the Juvenile

Justice Division of the Eleventh Judicial Circuit of Miami-Dade County. First, data from a clinical

interview and the administration of the Wide RangeAchievementTestwerefactoranalyzed.Six

factors were found to be statistically significant based on a parallel an alyses. Neighborhood factor s

explained the largest amount of variance followed by peer influence, family functioning, gang

involvement, substance use, and academic achievement. These six domains were analyzed in

separate Poisson regression models. Family-wise error rate was controlled with Bonferroni

adjustments. Each model predicting number of arrests from academic performance, substance use,

peer influence, gang involvement, and neighborhood factors were statistically significant. The final

model including all variables across the six domains indicated good fit, w

2

(14) ¼201.260, p< .001.

Implications stemming from these findings are discussed.

Keywords

juvenile delinquency, chronic offenders, recidivism, Poisson regression

Chronic juvenile offenders constitute a subgroup of offenders characterized as highly recidivistic

by the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP). Compared to the general

population of juvenile offenders, this subtype accounts for a disproportionate amount of crime

and are more likely to continue criminal behaviors as adults. Wolfgang, Figlio, and Sellin (1972)

are credited with first presenting the idea of chronic career offenders with their seminal work,

Delinquency in a Birth Cohort. These offenders were known as the chronic six because they

represented only 6%of the total sample but committed 52%of all offenses, 71%of homicides,

82%of robberies, and 64%of aggravated assaults. These results were validated by Tracy,

1

College of Psychology, Nova Southeastern University, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA

2

College of Education, Nova Southeastern University, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA

Corresponding Author:

Tom D. Kennedy, College of Psychology, Nova Southeastern University, 3301 College Ave, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33314, USA.

Email: tkom@nova.edu

Youth Violence and JuvenileJustice

2019, Vol. 17(2) 174-193

ªThe Author(s) 2018

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DOI: 10.1177/1541204018770517

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Wolfgang, and Figlio (1985) who examined a second cohort of children and others (Hamparian,

Schuster, Dinitz, & Conrad, 1978; West & Farrington, 1977). Chronic juvenile offenders tend to

begin their criminal behaviors at a young age (under 10) and often end up, as Moffitt (1993a)

designated, life course persistent. The term chronic offender has been operationally defined as

youths with a record of five or more arrests as minors (Hamparian et al., 1978; Shannon, 1978;

Wolfgang et al., 1972; Wolfgang, Thornberyy, & Figlio, 1987). More recently, Trulson, Mar-

quart, Mullings, and Caeti (2005) examined 2,436 chronic juvenile offenders 5 years after their

release on parole. Not only were 85%of the individuals rearrested in that 5-year period of time

but almost 80%of them were rearrested for a felony.

Although an earlier study used risk factors to successfully discriminate between a small sample of

repeat and nonrepeat offenders (Carr & Vandiver, 2001), while another explored the interplay

between promotive and risk factors and persistent delinquency (Stouthamer-Loeber, Loeber, Wei,

Farrington, & Wikstom, 2002), the current study is the first to use Poisson regression models to

examine how each cluster (factor) of risks independently predict recidivism. Clearly, highly reci-

divistic offenders comprise a subgroup of offenders who warrant ongoing investigation, especially

when considering that these juveniles continue to commit a disproportionate amount of serious and

violent crimes, and are more likely to become life course persistent offenders.

Objective

This retrospective investigation was designed to explore the relationship between various risk

factors and recidivism in a large group of juvenile offenders. The primary aim was to examine the

predictive ability of each individual risk factor (academic performance, substance use, peer influ-

ence, family functioning, gang involvement, and neighborhood) on recidivism. A secondary aim was

to explore the unique contribution of each predictor variable to the overall model of recidivism.

Poisson regression models allowed for the analyses of the criterion variable (number of arrests),

which had a Poisson distribution.

Overview of Risk Factors and Recidivism

Relationships exist between multiple risk factors and the emergence of juvenile delinquency (Fer-

gusson & Lynskey, 1996; Smith, Thornberry, Rivera, Huizinga, & Stouthamer-Loeber, 2000;

Sameroff, Bartko, Baldwing, Baldwin, & Steifer, 1998); less is known about the relationship

between these risk factors and recid ivism. When compared to the general popu lation, juvenile

delinquents are exposed to less protective factors (Fergusson & Lynskey, 1996; White, Moffitt, &

Silva, 1989) and experience more risk factors (Fergusson & Lynskey, 1996; Smith et al., 2000;

Sameroff et al., 1998). The following risk factors are all known to increase the likelihood of

delinquency and subsequent recidivism: (a) association with deviant friends (Brook et al., 2003;

Dahlberg, 1998; Lerner & Galambos, 1998), (b) poor self-concept and low self-esteem (Brook,

Whiteman, Balka, & Cohen, 1997; Kennedy, Burnett, & Edmonds, 2011; Woessner & Schneider,

2013), (c) troublesome attitude (Corbett & Petersilia, 1994), (d) poor parenting styles (Kennedy,

Edmonds, Dann, & Burnett, 2010; Lerner & Galambos, 1998), (e) low family cohesion (Corbett &

Petersilia, 1994), (f) familial stress (Cowen & Work, 1988; Werner, 1989), (g) living in a violent

community (Baumrind, 1991; Durant, Cadenhead, Pendergrast, Slavens, & Linder, 1994; Kingery,

Pruitt, & Hurley, 1994; Loeber & Stouthamer-Loeber, 1998), and (h) early peer rejection

(Kupersmidt & Coie, 1990).

Carr and Vandiver (2001) found tha t various risk and protective facto rs have an impact on

recidivism among child offenders. Specifically, peer selection, personal characteristics, and familial

conditions discriminated nonrecidivistic from recidivistic delinquents. Interestingly, drug use and

Kennedy et al. 175