China and the End of the Deng Dynasty.

AuthorSylvester, John

China and the End of the Deng Dynasty

Matthew Gertken and Jennifer Richmond

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110418-china-and-end-deng-dynasty

Deng Xiaoping reshaped our world. He took a withdrawn, poor China encased in an ideological straitjacket and made it wealthy, powerful, and self-confident. Writing for STRATFOR, the authors of this perceptive article argue that Deng's model is now in peril. With President Hu Jintao having to give way to a successor in 2012 and the economy overheating, the regime is increasingly erratic in its policymaking and harsher in its internal security measures.

Deng stressed economic pragmatism, a foreign policy based on cooperation, and the supremacy of the Party. Jiang Zemin and Hu were both his proteges. The current economic problems, including the erosion of China's trade competitiveness, will slow growth and threaten the legitimacy of the current leaders.

The authors note one ambitious princeling, Bo Xilai, the Party chief in Chongqing, is now campaigning on a popular note of nostalgia for the Maoist era. They also point out that another "challenge to Deng's legitimacy has arisen from the military's self-confidence and confrontational attitude toward foreign rivals, a stance popular with an increasingly nationalist domestic audience. ... China has turned to the PLA to take a greater role in protecting its global interests, especially in...

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