'CHICOS NUEVOS DE LA CUADRA': LOS INVERSORES CAMRIAN DE FOCO.
Author | Price, John |
"Los ultimos dos anos demostraron en formas positiva y negativa la rapidez con que el discurso politico y las elecciones pueden alterar el clima de inversion. Los proximos 12 meses seran decisiuos con las elecciones de Chile, Colombia, Mexico y Brasil".
Durante los ultimos 15 anos, los inversores extranjeros apostaron a favor de Brasil y los miembros de la Alianza del Pacifico: Mexico, Chile, Colombia y Peru. En 2015 estos cinco mercados absorbian el 80% de toda la inversion extranjera directa (IED) de la region de America Latina y el Caribe. Sin embargo, la caida de los precios de los recursos naturales saboteo las monedas de estos paises y, con ellas, la confianza de los inversores.
La tensa situacion fiscal, sumada a una verdadera revolucion a traves de las redes sociales, derivo en una situacion de escrutinio publico sin precedentes. La presidenta Dilma fue destituida, el expresidente Humala (Peru) esta preso y los niveles de popularidad de Temer (Brasil), Pena Nieto (Mexico), Santos (Colombia) y Bachelet (Chile) alcanzan minimos historicos.
Algunos quiza deban enfrentar acciones judiciales cuando dejen el cargo en 2018. Los debilitados mandatos presidenciales de los cinco paises (entre ellos el de PPK en Peru) llevaron a una paralizacion del Congreso y a pocos o ningun avance en reformas esenciales. Los inversores son cautelosos no solo de la actual politica disfuncional de estos paises, sino tambien del riesgo politico que las proximas elecciones pueden desencadenar.
Los presidentes de Argentina y Ecuador, por el contrario, gozaron de apoyo inicial para las reformas.
El gobierno de Mauricio Macri salio a la cancha revirtiendo no menos de seis politicas de inversion que mantuvieron a los Kirchner en el poder a costa de socavar el prestigio de Argentina a nivel internacional.
Las reformas de Macri se toparon con resistencia, pero no lo suficiente como para poner en peligro el rumbo de la modernizacion...
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