CHEMISTRY LESSON: Storms, floods, droughts, and heat will disrupt chemical industry production as climate change impact grows.

• Author: Marshall, Kristin
• Position: SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

INCREASING levels of [CO.sub.2] from human-made sources will amplify climate-related risks for the chemical industry. Coastal storms, inland flooding, extreme temperature, and recurring drought all will have wide-ranging consequences. Serious impacts will include damage to capital assets, disruptions to transport and raw materials availability, and impacts on labor productivity and safety.

The implications of climate change already have proven to be significant to the chemicals industry, creating hundreds of millions in damage and lost earnings. Despite uncertainty surrounding the severity and timing of climate-related hazards, the implications will be major--even for those not located along coasts. Companies should prepare now for the challenges that lie ahead.

Our review of climate change adaptation strategies found that there is no completely effective solution except to move out of the path of destruction. The need to adapt will make small-scale, decentralized operations a growing part of the chemicals industry--even in the face of worse economics--as the impact of climate changes intensifies.

Tropical storm Harvey in 2017 and the Rhine droughts of 2018 have shown that climate change already is impacting the chemicals industry. What is more, extreme events will only grow more frequent as global average temperatures continue to rise. Disruption to chemical production and distribution will be made worse by an increase in climate-related extreme storm events, temperature change, and drought over the next 50 years. These hazards not only will impact day-to-day operations, but have the potential to disrupt the status quo of where and how chemicals are produced.

Companies, and specifically innovation leaders, need to prepare for the very real shortand long-term consequences of climate change. Here, climate adaptation is distinct from climate mitigation. Climate adaptation involves making fundamental changes to a company's core operations to ensure resilience, whereas mitigation attempts to prevent climate change from occurring.

Rather than focusing on individual or temporary fixes to the major challenges that climate change poses (building sea walls, for instance), we highlight big-picture innovation and discuss how the structure of the industry will be changed by new logistical and production paradigms.

Humans have influenced global drought patterns for nearly a century, and rising temperatures will continue to impact the distribution of...