CHECK... OR CHECKMATE?

• Author: Bresler, Robert J.
• Position: NATIONAL AFFAIRS - Donald Trump

PRES. DONALD TRUMP does speak to a significant section of rural, working-class, and middle-income voters. By carrying the poorest counties in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan, he was able to break the Democratic Party's hold on those states and snatch the presidency from Hillary Clinton. She turned out to be Trump's perfect foil, the personification of the kind of bi-coastal elitism his core voters despise. However, whatever ability Trump has to speak to his constituencies, he lacks in understanding of how to build on that capacity. A savvy politician, winning one election by a narrow margin, knows to use incumbency to broaden his political base. This Trump failed to do in the 2018 midterms.

Speaking nonstop at one political rally after another, Trump dreamt that his 2016 base would turn out in such numbers that it would defy historical trends. He labored under this illusion, believing the Republicans would keep control of both the House and Senate. He banked upon the strength of the economy, public contempt of the mainstream media, and fear of threats to our southern border to galvanize his voters. The strategy worked in the Senate races in the red states of North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana--and barely in the purple state of Florida.

Conversely, the Democrats had their own message--fear and hatred. It focused on Trump and his core nationalists, portrayed as threats to democracy. This message played well in comfortable upper-income suburbs and especially among women voters in those congressional districts. As a result, in California, Illinois, Florida, Kansas, Colorado, and Oklahoma, Republican incumbents lost numerous districts, some that Trump previously had carried.

Now, Trump will have his hands full with a Democratic House eager to investigate every aspect of his personal and public life. Even if special counsel Robert Mueller discovers no smoking gun of collusion and obstruction of justice, Democratic calls for an impeachment resolution in the House will continue unabated.

How could Trump have allowed this to happen? Economic growth is between three and four percent and unemployment is at record lows. Minority unemployment has declined dramatically. A well thought through Republican campaign strategy would have kept the economic message front and center. Instead, Trump made himself the focus of an election drama. The Senate seats in North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, and Florida still would have turned Republican with a...