Chapter three: understanding the jabbermock.

• Author: Shambaugh, David
• Position: Great Powers in Wonderland - Critical essay

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If the bear's so great, what of the dragon, then? "It seems very pretty ... but it's rather hard to understand!"

CHINA HAS a conflicted identity as a major power--but few nations have had as extensive, animated and diverse discourse. Official, semiofficial and unofficial circles all actively debate the roles, opportunities, dangers, risks and responsibilities of being a major power. There is still a segment of opinion that denies China is a major power--arguing instead that it remains a developing (socialist) country and is, at best, a regional Asian power. Over the past decade, however, the preponderance of domestic discourse recognizes that China is a major power--or at least is well on its way to becoming one.

While such discussions take place primarily in the semiofficial policy and academic communities, they have also extended to society at large--with the 2006 airing of the twelve-part CCTV (China Central Television) documentary series "Rising Powers." This popular program, which followed a series of lectures on the subject presented by leading academics to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo the previous year, was watched by hundreds of millions of Chinese.

Within the national discourse on China as a great power, several contentious subdebates have surfaced.

The first is the debate over whether the international order is still moving toward multipolarity. Hu Jintao's report to the Seventeenth Party Congress in October claimed that it was. But not all analysts agree, arguing that American preeminence will endure. A compromise consensus has emerged that unipolarity is not mutually exclusive with multipolarity, and that the global structure has one superpower and many poles.

A second question concerns China's own status and role. Many policy makers argue that China should follow Deng Xiaoping's dictum to "not seek leadership" and "sustain a modest demeanor whatever one's capabilities." Earlier this decade a leading CCP theorist and advisor, Zheng Bijian, coined the term "peaceful rise," but after a heated debate in academic and leadership circles, it was abandoned in favor of "peaceful development" as the official mantra. "Rise" was thought to be too threatening to some abroad, while others favored "revival" or "restoration."

Chinese leader Hu Jintao put forward his own vision of a "harmonious world" at the United Nations in September 2005, (1) which subsequently became the government's current...