Chapter five: the Japanese quadrille.

• Author: Samuels, Richard J.
• Position: Great Powers in Wonderland - Critical essay

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"But it's no use going back to yesterday, because I was a different person then." Japan's on the verge of something more--which path will it choose?

A GREAT DEAL has changed since the late 1980s, when Japan was known as an "economic giant and political pygmy." Japan may still be "punching below its weight" in world affairs, but it has been bulking up to prepare for new bouts. Tokyo's defense budget is one of the largest in the world, its military (the Self-Defense Forces, or SDF) is acquiring greater offensive military capabilities, and its leaders have openly embraced a global security role.

While much of this change is owed to shifts in the regional and global balances of power, all of it has been filtered through an active domestic debate--on how and when Japan should countenance the use of force and the amount of distance Japan should put between itself and its premier ally, the United States. This balancing act defines sharp differences about how Japan should provide for its security and is not a simple matter of left versus right. Nor does it strictly reflect party or other institutional affiliations. For example, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party supports the U.S. alliance unconditionally, but is divided on how to deal with Asia, while the opposition Democratic Party of Japan--which now dominates the upper House of Councillors--is unified on regional integration, but divided on the alliance.

The security discourse can be sorted along two axes. The first is a measure of the value placed on the alliance with the United States. At one extreme is the view, held most notably by former-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, that the United States, Japan's most important source of security, must be embraced unconditionally. At the other extreme is the view, often articulated by Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara, that Japan must avoid becoming entangled in U.S. misadventures--a fear enhanced by the continued presence of American bases on Japanese soil. In the middle are those who want Japan to rebalance its Asian and American relationships more effectively. They are attracted to the idea of regional institution building, but are not prepared to walk away from American security guarantees. This is where Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and the majority of the members of his new blue-ribbon foreign-policy study group seem most comfortable.

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