Change is on the horizon.

• Author: Lawer, Betsy
• Position: SPECIAL SECTION: Economic Outlook - Job growth in the private sector

Any economic forecast in Alaska must start and end with oil-its price on the world market, how much of it is going through the pipeline, and the exploration and new production on the horizon.

As the price of oil continues to fall, how will our state leaders respond to what may be a significant negative impact on our state's income, at least for the short term? What's the economic impact to Alaska's economy if budget cuts are to come in response to dwindling oil income to the state?

There are individual economic indicators that tell a positive story for the coming year. For instance, there's reason to feel good about job growth in the private sector and in the oil patch in the coming year. Oilfield services activity is picking up due to new exploration and maintenance at existing facilities. If the state moves forward with the LNG (liquefied natural gas) line on its current path, we can be hopeful about continued development on the North Slope and Point Thomson.

Alaska Native corporations are also a bright spot in the state's economic future. The top forty-nine Alaskan-owned companies in terms of gross revenue, as named by Alaska Business Monthly in October, included nineteen companies owned by Alaska Native corporations and villages.

We feel good about job growth in the private sector. Construction on a number of projects will start in 2015 in the Fairbanks and Tok areas, and it looks as though the Healy clean coal project is slated to come back online in 2015.

State fisheries experts are predicting an "excellent" pink salmon catch in Southeast, and...