Change and Continuity in Citizens’ Evaluations of Supreme Court Nominees

• Author: Richard L. Vining,Rachel Bitecofer
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221119402
• Published date: 01 January 2023
• Date: 01 January 2023

Article

AmericanPoliticsResearch

2023,Vol.51(1)57–68

©TheAuthor(s)2022

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DOI:10.1177/1532673X221119402

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ChangeandContinuityinCitizens’Evaluations

ofSupremeCourtNominees

RichardL.Vining,Jr

1

andRachelBitecofer

2

Abstract

Inthe1980sand1990s,supportersofSupremeCourtnomineestendedtocharacterizetheirviewsinnon-ideologicalterms

whileopponentsreliedmoreonideologicaljustifications.Sincethen,thejudicialappointmentprocesshasbeenincreasingly

entangledwithpartisanconflict.Giventheheightenedfocusonnominees’ideologicalpreferences,weexpectthatcitizensare

nowmorelikelytorelyonpoliticaloverapoliticaljustifications,eveniftheysupportthenominee.Weusedatafromatelephone

surveyin2017afterthenominationofJudgeNeilGorsuchtotestthisproposition.Wefindthatcontemporarycitizensrely

morefrequentlyonpoliticaljustificationsfortheirsupportofnomineesthanthentheydidintheReagan-Bushera.Opponents

remainmorelikelytoinvokepoliticalorientations,butthedisparityhasdeclined.Thefindingsrevealbothchangeandcontinuity

incitizens’evaluationsofSupremeCourtnominees.

Keywords

judicialnominations,judicialpolitics,judicialselection,publicopinion,supremecourt

FollowingeachmodernnominationtotheSupremeCourt

oftheUnitedStates,pollingfirmsandmediaoutletsrelease

aflurryofsurveyresultscapturingpublicresponsetothe

potentialjustice.

1

Thesepollresultscontributetothe

broadernarrativeaboutthenomineeandassistprognos-

ticatorstopredictthenominee’streatmentbytheSenate

JudiciaryCommitteeandthefullSenate.Commentary

aboutsuchpollstypicallyfailstoinvestigatecitizens’

explanationsforsupportoropposition.Whencrosstabsare

provided,theytendtofocusonpartisandifferencesor

supportforthepresident.Althoughaggregatepollingre-

sultsareinterestingandpotentiallyinfluential,theyob-

scureunderlyingtrendsinhowAmericansperceive,

discuss,andevaluatethejudiciary.Politicalscientistshave

takenthedynamicsofpublicopinionaboutSupremeCourt

nomineesmoreseriously(Badas&Stauffer,2018;Gibson

&Caldeira,2011;Gimpel&Wolpert,1995;Sen,2017)but

tendtofocusonpredictorsofsupportoroppositionperse

ratherthancitizens’explanationsfortheirstances.We

arguethatunderstandinghowcitizensevaluateSupreme

Courtnominees,includingwhethertheyemphasizepo-

liticalorapoliticalfactors,providesvaluableinsightre-

gardingpopularexpectationsandperceptionsofthe

SupremeCourtandfederaljudiciary.Inaddition,weargue

thathowcitizensevaluatepotentialjusticeshasshifted

overtimeascourtsandtheconfirmationprocessarein-

creasinglypoliticized(Armaly,2018;Rogowski&Stone,

2021).

Inordertoexaminehowcitizensjustifytheirconfirmation

preferencesinthecontemporaryera,wecommissionedan

original,live-telephone,randomprobabilitysamplingsurvey

of957citizensconductedinFebruaryandearlyMarchof

2017whiletheSenateconsideredNeilGorsuch’snomination

totheSupremeCourt.Respondentswereaskedwhetherthey

supportedoropposedGorsuch’snominationandthenasked

toexplaintheirpositions.Inordertoexaminechangeover

timewereplicatedquestionsinthesurveyanalyzedby

GimpelandRingel(1995)intheirstudyofpublicevalua-

tionsofRobertBorkandClarenceThomasduringtheir

confirmationprocesses.Theyfoundthatinthemid-1980s

andearly1990ssupportersofconfirmationgenerallyex-

plainedtheirpositionwithapoliticalargumentswhileop-

ponentsweremorelikelytocharacterizetheiroppositionin

ideologicalterms.Replicatingtheiranalyticalstrategyal-

lowsustodeterminehowcitizenscharacterizetheirsupport

oroppositiontoGorsuch’snomination.Inaddition,weare

abletotestwhetherpopularevaluationsofSupremeCourt

nomineeshavechangedsincetheRonaldReaganand

1

DepartmentofPoliticalScience,UniversityofGeorgia,Athens,GA,USA

2

StrikePAC,Eugene,OR,USA

CorrespondingAuthor:

RichardL.Vining,Jr.,PoliticalScience,UniversityofGeorgia,180Baldwin

Hall,Athens,GA30602,USA.

Email:rvining@uga.edu